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Climate crisis

‘Despite all the crises rocking Lebanon, climate change must be placed at the heart of reforms’

Lea Kai, an expert at the United Nations Development Programme, comments on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that raised the alarm on the climate change impact. She also explains why the Mediterranean region and Lebanon, in particular, is suffering the brunt of the effects of global warming.

‘Despite all the crises rocking Lebanon, climate change must be placed at the heart of reforms’

Forest fires have ravaged Lebanon and other Mediterranean countries this summer. (Credit: AFP)

The catastrophic wildfires that broke out in Lebanon and around the Mediterranean, the unprecedented melting of glaciers, the record temperatures: all the signs were there. The latest global report on climate change confirms the gravity of the situation.

In its 42-page report titled “Summary for policymakers,” published on Aug. 9, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — a United Nations body for assessing the science in relation to climate change — sounded a terrifying alarm on the situation and assigned human responsibility for climate change, stressing the phenomenon’s acceleration.

Kai, a project manager on climate change at UNDP, elucidates the report data to L’Orient-Le Jour.

This IPCC report had more impact than its predecessors. Is this because of the current natural disasters happening all around the world (wildfires, floods, drought …) or because of growing awareness of the environmental situation?

It’s because of both. On the one hand, since the beginning of the industrial age, every summer has brought new temperature records. On the other, there is undoubtedly a greater global awareness of the situation. This is not to mention that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is currently preparing for the COP 26 UN Climate Change Conference, which will take place in Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

Such reports put pressure on developed and developing countries to step up their measures in terms of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are responsible for climate change.

What are the highlights of this report compared to previous ones? Does it aim to confirm what the scientific community has been claiming for a long time?

One of the highlights of this report is the definitive confirmation that the current climate change is a consequence of human activities and not of natural causes linked to a given cycle.

The report also urges countries to take account of the urgency of the situation and take more determined measures aimed at mitigating greenhouse emissions.

The third important point is the confirmation that sea level rise is currently underway and will be an inevitable consequence of climate change no matter how hard we work in the future.

The rise in sea level, which is expected to reach two meters according to forecasts, will have catastrophic consequences on islands but also on coastal areas, like ours, or the Nile Delta, where, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, 7-11 million inhabitants face forced migration in the future.

This new report echoes new knowledge gained over the past eight years, based on very advanced scientific models. The scientific community is therefore very sure of the results, often employing the term “very likely” throughout the report.

“Disastrous” consequences in the Mediterranean

Can we still realistically believe in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees (compared to pre-industrial levels)? Or to 2 degrees?

Yes, we can, but that would require colossal investments at the global level — a sort of international Marshall Plan for the climate.

Huge investment must be made in renewable energy or in carbon capture and storage, because it will indeed be impossible to rely solely on lessening global gas emissions.

Limiting global warming to 2 degrees is also attainable, but the countries’ commitments and measures would need to improve significantly by 2030.

The international community and the United Nations need to put in place a strict and precise monitoring system to determine whether these countries’ objectives will be achieved or not.

The Mediterranean is identified as one of the areas most affected by accelerating global warming. What should we expect?

Scientists predict disastrous consequences in the Mediterranean region, including intense heat waves or rise in sea level, which would cause mass migrations, major impacts on the agricultural sector, more frequent catastrophic wildfires and water scarcity episodes that will increasingly threaten food security.

The region is sociologically, economically and ecologically vulnerable, and climate change is putting more pressure on an already fragile area.

Moreover, the population boom in the north and east of the Mediterranean is enormous, jumping from 100 million people in the 1990s to 450 million today.

In the energy field, is there an opportunity that can be seized in Lebanon to confront the situation? In which area are the effects of climate change significantly visible? Why is it crucial to talk about this despite the political, economic, financial and security crises rocking the country?

Water, food and energy security is a priority in Lebanon, which will be seriously affected by climate change. Climate change will have pronounced consequences for the most vulnerable communities, such as fishermen, farmers, who depend on agricultural and maritime resources.

Wildfires are another serious consequence of global warming. This year, we have come to realize how unprepared we are to face them.

Water resources are also extremely threatened, which would impact agricultural irrigation, industry and the commercial and hospital sectors.

Regarding energy, we should perhaps seize the opportunity to attract funds in relation to the fight against climate change (renewable energies, etc.), which would allow us to achieve energy security that is much needed for Lebanon.

Despite all the crises the country is going through, it is imperative to raise the problem of climate change.

In fact, if reforms are to be carried out, it is better to take into account the criteria linked to climate change and ecological standards in general, so that the expected progress will be sustainable.

Should we speak of a climate emergency today?

Undoubtedly, this is a quintessential climate emergency.

If this report is not a red alert for the world, I don’t know what is, or what it will take to give the people and their governments a wake-up call.

We now know that climate change will affect the lives of people on earth — compounding the changes that we have been experiencing for many months due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which made the world realize how poorly prepared it is for disaster and how expensive response is compared to prevention.

I hope that this experience will push governments and communities to invest more in prevention, preparation and communication technologies, just as they should push for societal change, which is essential for better crisis management.

This is how we can try to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of global warming by 2050 or 2100.


This article was originally published in French in L’Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.

The catastrophic wildfires that broke out in Lebanon and around the Mediterranean, the unprecedented melting of glaciers, the record temperatures: all the signs were there. The latest global report on climate change confirms the gravity of the situation.In its 42-page report titled “Summary for policymakers,” published on Aug. 9, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — a...