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Post-crisis Lebanon missed its chance to restore competitiveness

Since 2020, a currency collapse that should have restored competitiveness has produced a dollarized elite economy, while the rest of the country is left behind.

Post-crisis Lebanon missed its chance to restore competitiveness

Smoke rises following an explosion caused by an Israeli strike on the southern coastal city of Sour on May 31, 2026. (Credit: Kawnat Haju/AFP)

When a country’s currency collapses, one thing usually follows: it becomes cheap. Exports become more competitive, tourism picks up, and local goods and services attract foreign demand. Painful as the adjustment is, it often lays the groundwork for recovery. What has unfolded in Lebanon since 2019 is not the typical post-devaluation story; it is something more unusual — and more troubling.Two economies in one countryLebanon is no longer one economy. It is two. On one side is a largely dollarized economy in sectors including restaurants, tourism, private healthcare, education, non-tradable services, and prime real estate, where prices are set in dollars and largely aligned with international levels. This is the Lebanon that appears to function; it is visible, active, stabilizing, and in narrow segments. Read more Financial gap: BDL...
When a country’s currency collapses, one thing usually follows: it becomes cheap. Exports become more competitive, tourism picks up, and local goods and services attract foreign demand. Painful as the adjustment is, it often lays the groundwork for recovery. What has unfolded in Lebanon since 2019 is not the typical post-devaluation story; it is something more unusual — and more troubling.Two economies in one countryLebanon is no longer one economy. It is two. On one side is a largely dollarized economy in sectors including restaurants, tourism, private healthcare, education, non-tradable services, and prime real estate, where prices are set in dollars and largely aligned with international levels. This is the Lebanon that appears to function; it is visible, active, stabilizing, and in narrow segments. Read more Financial gap:...
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