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Even if the US-Iran war ends, a return to economic normalcy in the Middle East will take time

Jordan and Egypt's economies have been the least affected so far, while Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq have been hit the hardest, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

Even if the US-Iran war ends, a return to economic normalcy in the Middle East will take time

Ships in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Musandam, on June 16, 2026. (Credit: Stringer/Reuters)

In a report published shortly before the announcement of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, and later updated for L'Orient-Le Jour by its chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa, Garbis Iradian, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) assessed the macroeconomic impact of the war in Iran, launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28."The overall assessment remains largely unchanged. On the whole, the agreement — which remains fragile — reduces the short-term risk of escalation and should gradually improve conditions for maritime transport and market confidence," said Iradian. "However, its economic impact will remain uneven across the region, and in most cases, the revised outlooks should differ only marginally from those published on June 10."Whether the situation...
In a report published shortly before the announcement of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, and later updated for L'Orient-Le Jour by its chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa, Garbis Iradian, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) assessed the macroeconomic impact of the war in Iran, launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28."The overall assessment remains largely unchanged. On the whole, the agreement — which remains fragile — reduces the short-term risk of escalation and should gradually improve conditions for maritime transport and market confidence," said Iradian. "However, its economic impact will remain uneven across the region, and in most cases, the revised outlooks should differ only marginally from those published on June 10."Whether the...
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