A digger removes the debris following damage to a residential building, in the Iranian capital Tehran on March 15, 2026. (Credit: Atta Kenare/AFP)
Has the critical threshold that Robert Pape calls the “escalation trap” already been crossed?According to the University of Chicago professor, the most dangerous phase of a war is rarely its outbreak, but the middle phase where losses mount, backing down becomes politically costly and a sign of weakness, and escalation seems like the only way to achieve what the initial offensive failed to secure.“The opening moves of the Iran war are already behind us. The real question is whether the conflict is already sliding into the Escalation Trap,” he warned.Over two weeks ago, the Americans and Israelis took a big gamble, playing their strongest hand in a high-stakes bid to maximize their gains. But this risky bet could backfire as the confrontation drags on and its trajectory spirals out of control.The longer the conflict goes on, the more...
Has the critical threshold that Robert Pape calls the “escalation trap” already been crossed?According to the University of Chicago professor, the most dangerous phase of a war is rarely its outbreak, but the middle phase where losses mount, backing down becomes politically costly and a sign of weakness, and escalation seems like the only way to achieve what the initial offensive failed to secure.“The opening moves of the Iran war are already behind us. The real question is whether the conflict is already sliding into the Escalation Trap,” he warned.Over two weeks ago, the Americans and Israelis took a big gamble, playing their strongest hand in a high-stakes bid to maximize their gains. But this risky bet could backfire as the confrontation drags on and its trajectory spirals out of control.The longer the conflict goes on, the...
