A member of the Hashd al-Shaabi stands in front of a banner depicting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader, on Tahrir Square in Baghdad, March 12, 2026. (Credit: Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP)
As the bombings in Iran continue and the region weathers waves of Iranian reprisals, it may seem premature to speak of a post-war order. Yet the evolution of the conflict already depends on what could follow. In the Middle East and beyond, decision-makers are quietly weighing the possibility that the aftermath of war may not bring the stability and prosperity some promise, but rather turbulence within the Islamic Republic itself, whose effects could ripple through an already fragile region.Gulf stability at stakeFor the Gulf monarchies, the war presents a dilemma. "The collapse of the Iranian nation-state would be a nightmare scenario for GCC members," says Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics. "The Arab Gulf states would have much to lose from a protracted conflict in a fragmented Iran lacking central authority,...
As the bombings in Iran continue and the region weathers waves of Iranian reprisals, it may seem premature to speak of a post-war order. Yet the evolution of the conflict already depends on what could follow. In the Middle East and beyond, decision-makers are quietly weighing the possibility that the aftermath of war may not bring the stability and prosperity some promise, but rather turbulence within the Islamic Republic itself, whose effects could ripple through an already fragile region.Gulf stability at stakeFor the Gulf monarchies, the war presents a dilemma. "The collapse of the Iranian nation-state would be a nightmare scenario for GCC members," says Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics. "The Arab Gulf states would have much to lose from a protracted conflict in a fragmented Iran lacking central authority,...
