US aircraft carrier arrives in the Gulf as crackdown continues

Uncertainty persisted Tuesday over U.S. President Donald Trump’s intentions, after he dispatched a military fleet off the coast of Iran, maintaining the threat of intervention in response to ongoing crackdowns, while claiming that Tehran is ready for dialogue.

Arrests continue across Iran despite an end to the protests that defied authorities earlier this month, with at least 41,880 people detained according to the latest figures from the U.S.-based NGO Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

This NGO, along with other human rights organizations, continue their work documenting the crackdown, made more difficult by a near-total internet shutdown imposed since Jan. 8.

On Tuesday, HRANA reported having now verified the deaths of 6,126 people, including 5,777 demonstrators, but is still investigating about 17,000 other possible deaths. It again accuses authorities of pursuing the injured inside hospitals to detain them, despite denials from Iran’s Health Ministry.

The U.S. president continues his mixed messaging: On Monday, the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its escort arrived in the Gulf.

Trump warned that the United States has “a great armada near Iran. Bigger than in Venezuela,” alluding to American operations that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro earlier in January.

But he then added, in an interview with U.S. outlet Axios: “They want to make a deal. I know it. They’ve called many times. They want to talk.”

Axios noted that Trump declined to detail which options he is considering or reveal his preferred approach.

Analysts believe these options may include bombing military sites or targeted strikes against key leaders, aiming to topple Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989, and the Islamic Republic as established in 1979.

'Major retaliation'

According to The New York Times, U.S. intelligence agencies have repeatedly assured Trump that Iran’s rulers are “weakening,” or are “the weakest” since the fall of the Shah in 1979.

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham told the paper he spoke with the president in recent days: “The goal is to end the regime,” he said.

On the Iranian side, where diplomacy has already suggested that a communication channel with the U.S. is open, the tone has been fairly moderate in recent days.

But on Tuesday, the spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard, the Islamic Republic’s ideological army, reportedly told the conservative newspaper Hamshahri that “if their aircraft carrier makes a mistake and enters Iranian territorial waters, it will be targeted.”

The conservative daily Javan stated that Iran is ready for a “major retaliation” and could take control of the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for the global transport of oil and liquefied natural gas.

In the streets of Tehran, a large billboard has been put up, seemingly depicting a destroyed American aircraft carrier.

State television continues to broadcast interrogations of protesters, in "confessions" staged to quell opposition, according to human rights groups.

Last week, Iranian authorities released their first total death toll, at 3,117, of which 2,427 are, according to them, security forces or bystanders.

The opposition channel Iran International, based abroad, has recorded more than 36,500 deaths, citing classified documents and security sources.

Another NGO, Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR), reported 3,428 protesters killed, but says it fears the total may exceed 25,000 dead.