As a (violent) wind of protest blows over the Islamic Republic, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is making an official visit to Beirut, the first stop on a tour of several states in the region. As is always the case when an Iranian official visits Lebanon, the trip carries numerous messages, but this one more so than previous ones.
First, it comes at a particularly delicate time for Iran, for Lebanon, for the region, and perhaps even for the entire world, where a sense of major changes in the making lingers. Regarding Lebanon, Araghchi’s visit is taking place amidst internal division and against a backdrop of intensified Israeli attacks against the South and the Bekaa.
This clearly shows, indirectly, that the Israelis would have preferred for this visit not to take place — regardless of its content — all the more since one of the goals of last year’s developments was precisely to isolate the Islamic Republic and destroy the 'axis of resistance.'
One of the main messages of this visit is thus Iran’s refusal to recognize that the 'axis of resistance' is over and that Lebanon, after Syria, is no longer in its 'zone of influence.' Certainly, according to leaks about the content of talks between the Iranian minister and Lebanese officials, the exchanges focused on the need to maintain relations within a diplomatic framework, based on respect for each country’s sovereignty and the refusal of any interference in internal affairs.
But this does not change the impact of the visit itself, which above all demonstrates Iran’s presence on the Lebanese scene, despite recent developments. The Iranian minister himself understood that these topics would come up. He therefore emphasized in his statements his country’s desire to establish good relations with all Lebanese communities — not only with the Shiite community or even a part of it.
But the most important element of the visit is that Araghchi made a point of being accompanied by an economic delegation. In the view of many observers, this indicates, on the one hand, a concrete willingness by Iranian authorities to broaden the scope of their relations in Lebanon, proposing economic projects in several regions across the country.
Furthermore, Iran wants to make concrete proposals for the reconstruction of the South and other regions destroyed by Israeli strikes, sending a clear message of support to the Shiite community and Hezbollah’s popular base. Finally, it is, in a sense, meant to show that Iranian support for Lebanon is not merely military, particularly in its backing of Hezbollah.
It should be noted that during earlier visits to Lebanon, Iranian officials had repeatedly offered assistance on the issue of electricity, notably to build new power plants that would help bridge gaps in this area. In 2022, when Lebanon was in dire need of fuel to operate its power plants, Iran even sent fuel boats that unloaded their cargo at the Syrian port of Banias before it was transported to Lebanon. This move drew the ire of then-U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Dorothy Shea, who offered Lebanese authorities a special waiver, despite the Caesar Act, to allow Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity to transit to Lebanon via Syria. Ultimately, that authorization never came through, and Iran did not send further shipments.
Today, the issue of power generation has come up again, along with broader economic projects. According to Lebanese sources close to Iran, the minister and his delegation don’t have high hopes that Lebanese authorities will accept these proposals, particularly since — even if the Caesar Act has been lifted — the Islamic Republic is still subject to U.S. sanctions.
The Iranian move is thus more symbolic than effective, and is clearly intended as a message to states hostile to the mullahs’ regime worldwide, especially to the Americans and Israelis, to show that it is holding on and, despite the serious economic crisis fueling popular protest at home, can still help other countries.
Yet, according to some analysts, this Iranian focus on the economic dimension may herald a less military approach in supporting Hezbollah. To all who questioned him on this subject, the minister assured that Hezbollah is “master of its decisions and Iran does not interfere” in this regard.
Araghchi was also not specific about the possibility of a new Israeli-U.S. war against his country and Lebanon. But the presence of the economic delegation gives a different impression, running counter to predictions about the expansion of Israeli attacks.
This article was originally published in French on L'Orient-Le Jour.
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