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ANALYSIS

Iran is playing for time, but it may soon run out

The most likely scenario remains that of a tense deadlock: No comprehensive agreement, but no open war either.

Iran is playing for time, but it may soon run out

Motorists drive past a sign depicting a statue of the Sassanid king Shapur I capturing the Roman emperor Valerian during its inauguration in Enghelab (Revolution) Square in Tehran on Nov. 11, 2025. (Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP)

The drums of war are once again sounding in the Middle East. The New York Times estimates that a renewed confrontation between Israel and Iran is now only “a question of time.” Lebanon is at a critical point on its southern border, Iraq is experiencing tense elections, and Washington and Tehran remain trapped in mutual threats as they struggle to bridge their trust void. Against this backdrop, Iran is trying to adjust its strategy to the new regional reality shaped by Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza. Before the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, the wave of Arab-Israeli normalization had unsettled Tehran. Since then, the Iranian regime has faced intense Israeli military pressure and must now reassess its approach to a landscape where the war in Gaza is technically over, but its consequences remain explosive. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas...
The drums of war are once again sounding in the Middle East. The New York Times estimates that a renewed confrontation between Israel and Iran is now only “a question of time.” Lebanon is at a critical point on its southern border, Iraq is experiencing tense elections, and Washington and Tehran remain trapped in mutual threats as they struggle to bridge their trust void. Against this backdrop, Iran is trying to adjust its strategy to the new regional reality shaped by Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza. Before the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, the wave of Arab-Israeli normalization had unsettled Tehran. Since then, the Iranian regime has faced intense Israeli military pressure and must now reassess its approach to a landscape where the war in Gaza is technically over, but its consequences remain explosive. Iranian Foreign Minister...
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