Countdown to the restoration of sanctions against Iran

U.N. sanctions on Iran will be formally reinstated Saturday evening following the failure of talks between European countries, which are demanding assurances on Iran’s nuclear program, and Tehran, which denounces the decision as illegal and has recalled its ambassadors.

The United Kingdom, France and Germany, also known as the E3 group, triggered the so-called “snapback” mechanism at the end of August. This mechanism allows for the reinstatement of sanctions lifted in 2015 under the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) within a 30-day period.

After receiving the green light from the U.N. Security Council and the unsuccessful Friday attempt by Russia and China to delay the deadline, heavy sanctions, including an arms embargo and economic measures, are set to be restored overnight from Saturday to Sunday, barring a last-minute surprise. In protest, Iran recalled its ambassadors to France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Saturday, state television reported.

“The nuclear escalation by Iran, detailed in more than 60 IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] reports over the past six years, poses a threat to peace and security,” said British U.N. ambassador Barbara Woodward on Friday, while not ruling out that sanctions could be lifted again “in the future.”

High-level meetings have been held throughout the week on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York in an effort to find a diplomatic solution.

IAEA inspections resume

However, the European trio judged that Tehran had not made “concrete gestures.” They had set three conditions: the resumption of negotiations with the United States; access for IAEA inspectors to sensitive nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan, which were bombed in June by Israel and the United States; and a process to secure the stockpile of enriched uranium.

After suspending its relations with the U.N. agency following the June attacks, Iran agreed in early September to a new framework for cooperation with the IAEA. Inspections at some nuclear sites resumed this week, according to the agency.

In this context, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the Americans and Europeans of “bad faith,” vowing that his country would “never yield to pressure.” At the same time, he left the door open for negotiations. President Massoud Pezeshkian assured that Iran would not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in retaliation.

Iran considers the sanctions restoration process illegal, as do Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing unsuccessfully proposed on Friday at the U.N. Security Council to extend the Iran nuclear deal, which expires on Oct. 18, by six months to allow more time for diplomacy.

Russian disagreement

In this context, observers fear that some countries, notably Russia, may choose to ignore the Security Council decision to reimpose sanctions. This possibility was hinted at Friday by Russian Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy: “There is no snapback and there will be no snapback. Any attempt to revive pre-2015 anti-Iran Security Council resolutions is null and void,” he said after the vote failed.

In 2015, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, Russia and China reached an agreement with Tehran, placing limits on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The United States, under President Donald Trump, withdrew in 2018 and reinstated its own sanctions. Iran subsequently abandoned some commitments, notably on uranium enrichment. Western countries suspect Iran of seeking nuclear weapons, while Tehran defends its right to a civilian nuclear program.

Iran currently possesses 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. If enriched to 90 percent, this stockpile could allow the country to produce 8 to 10 nuclear bombs, according to European experts.

“Iran has never sought and will never seek to make an atomic bomb. We do not want nuclear weapons,” Iranian President said this week at the U.N. podium.

Compte à rebours vers le rétablissement des sanctions contre l'Iran