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ANALYSIS

Hezbollah’s last cards

The party cannot win this war, but it can make Lebanon lose it.

Hezbollah’s last cards

Supporters of Hezbollah in the southern suburbs of Beirut. (Credit: Mohammad Yassin/L'Orient-Le Jour)

Reading Hezbollah has always been a delicate exercise. It has become even more so since the party lost its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and the last war with Israel. There is no longer a pilot in the cockpit, and the party itself, along with the axis it belongs to, seems uncertain of where it is headed. Several factions coexist within the party, yet it remains unclear what weight they carry in decision-making, which depends above all on Tehran.A few months ago, Hezbollah seemed not entirely closed to the idea of negotiating its disarmament. Today, it threatens to “burn the country” rather than surrender its weapons. For some, this maneuver is nothing more than posturing to secure a better price for the party’s “normalization.” Others are convinced instead that civil war is inevitable.Between the two lie many possibilities.Hezbollah’s...
Reading Hezbollah has always been a delicate exercise. It has become even more so since the party lost its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and the last war with Israel. There is no longer a pilot in the cockpit, and the party itself, along with the axis it belongs to, seems uncertain of where it is headed. Several factions coexist within the party, yet it remains unclear what weight they carry in decision-making, which depends above all on Tehran.A few months ago, Hezbollah seemed not entirely closed to the idea of negotiating its disarmament. Today, it threatens to “burn the country” rather than surrender its weapons. For some, this maneuver is nothing more than posturing to secure a better price for the party’s “normalization.” Others are convinced instead that civil war is inevitable.Between the two lie many...
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