A building in Tehran hit during an Israeli strike in the Iranian capital. (Credit: AFP/SEPAH News)
An attack of this sort had been possible for years, was considered likely for months, and it was all anyone talked about in recent days. And yet, when Israel bombed sites across Iran early Friday morning, the region was still thrown into a state of shock and plunged into a terrible unknown. The consequences of this escalation could be numerous and at the same time very difficult to anticipate.
The Middle East has not been the same since the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023. But it is as if all the events we have experienced since then, from the total destruction of the Gaza Strip to the decapitation of Hezbollah, the fall of the Assad regime, or the collapse of the 'Axis of Resistance,' were leading to this moment. The Iranian regime is the last piece of the puzzle. The one that will determine the face of the new Middle East or, rather, what remains of it after this conflict.
The facts
Israel carried out an unprecedented series of attacks against Iran in the early hours of Friday morning. Sending 200 fighter jets, Israel struck Iran's largest uranium enrichment plant, Natanz, as well as, according to the New York Times, at least six military bases around Tehran, including Parchin. Residences in two ultra-secure complexes housing military commanders were also bombed, in addition to several residential buildings in Tehran, in what appears to be targeted assassinations.
Israel says it killed Iran's top three generals: The head of the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami; the chief of staff of the Iranian army, Mohammad Bagheri; and the army's deputy commander, Gholamali Rashid, as well as several senior nuclear scientists.
"This operation will continue for as many days as it takes," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following yesterday's comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, warning Israel not to attack as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks continue, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that the U.S. was not involved in the strikes.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement that Israel "should expect severe punishment." Several countries have announced the closure of their airspace and oil prices are soaring.
The context
For years, Israel has threatened to carry out a "preventive" attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. The weakening of Hezbollah, the collapse of the 'Axis of Resistance,' and the destruction — even if it has been partly rebuilt since then — of Iran's anti-aircraft defense system during previous Israeli strikes in October 2024 opened a window of opportunity for Israel.
Trump's desire to prioritize the diplomatic option likely delayed Israeli plans, while Netanyahu repeatedly stated that he did not believe in the route his main ally was taking. But the fact that negotiations had yet to yield results — even though a new round was to take place on Sunday in Oman — probably prompted Israel to act.
The negotiations were stuck on whether or not the Islamic Republic had the right to enrich uranium on its soil. In late May, two reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also highlighted the acceleration of Iranian enrichment and Tehran's lack of cooperation.
The State Department and the Pentagon confirmed on Wednesday they were preparing the departure of non-essential personnel from the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and had authorized the voluntary departure of relatives of soldiers in the Middle East.
This measure was seen as anticipation of a significant escalation and a potential Iranian response against American bases. The Gulf monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia, have been advocating for months to avoid this scenario, fearing that they too might become targets.
Possible consequences
This sequence of events is far from over, and there are still more questions than answers. When and how will Iran respond? Does it still have the capability? To what extent was the operation coordinated with the United States and how will Trump react? Which of Iran's allies, from the Houthis to Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias, will participate in the retaliation?
The Israeli attack comes at a time when the Islamic Republic appears the weakest its been since its creation in 1979, or at least since the early 1990s. Iran is diplomatically isolated, internally weakened, the succession of Ayatollah Khamenei is far from assured, and the country is bearing the brunt of economic sanctions. Its network of alliances, which constituted its main shield against an Israeli attack, is very weakened, particularly Hezbollah, and its ballistic missile arsenal, its main weapon, seems to have been hit during the Israeli attack.
The magnitude of the attack and the precision of the targets suggest that the operation was prepared long in advance. It can be compared in this sense to the war waged by Israel against Hezbollah, which exposed the fragility of the party, its infiltration by Israeli intelligence, and Israel's technological superiority.
Hezbollah was caught off guard and was then nearly paralyzed in the first days of the all-out war, by the decimation of its high command and the destruction of its communication systems. While Iranian retaliation seems inevitable, it could be delayed by the elimination of top military figures.
The U.S. asserted that it had not participated in the operation, though it was aware it would occur. An Israeli official told the public channel KAN that Israel had coordinated its operations with Washington and had informed its ally before launching the attack. Iran said that Israel benefited from U.S. support.
This is one of the biggest question marks hanging over this morning's events. Did Israel receive American approval, as Trump hinted that the attack could be imminent, while still emphasizing that he favored the diplomatic option? Did the American president, who has no intention of dragging his country into a large-scale war in the Middle East, get carried away by Netanyahu's ambitions or did he consider, given Iran's inflexibility in negotiations, that it was the only solution, if not to destroy, then at least to slow down the Iranian nuclear program?
Trump is expected to speak in a few hours, and the tone of his speech should give us more indications on this subject. However, it is clear that the U.S. refuses to be publicly associated with this attack. While they have not deployed reinforcements ahead of time in the region, will they participate massively, as in the two previous Iranian attacks, in Israel's defense?
In April and October 2024, Iran attacked directly, and for the first time in its history, its regional archnemisis by sending hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. Several countries participated, directly or indirectly, in the interception of these missiles, but that might not be the case this time. Israelis seem to be expecting a larger attack, while the previous ones had limited effects.
Even in its weakened state, Iran can still harm Israel and target American interests in the Middle East, especially if its allies are involved in the retaliation. But it is hard to see what Iran's course of action will be, faced as it is with a more powerful adversary, as it plays for nothing less than its survival.
The Israeli operation does not directly aim to change the regime, but it could ultimately contribute to its extreme fragility, especially if an open and lasting war is declared. If this is the case, what will be Israel's plan? Can it withstand a war against Iran and its allies without the full support of the United States? There does not appear to be a clear path to de-escalation. And Lebanon — can it be spared from the storm?