BEIRUT — The majority of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being challenged by the thorny issue of the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, which could bring down the government and trigger early elections.
"Israel is getting closer to elections," headlines the ultra-Orthodox daily Yated Neeman on Thursday, relaying remarks attributed to Rabbi Dov Landau, one of the spiritual leaders of the Ashkenazi party United Torah Judaism (UTJ).
"A government that behaves this way towards Torah students is shameful and must be brought down," adds the newspaper, quoting this rabbi in reference to an unfulfilled promise by Mr. Netanyahu to pass a law guaranteeing Talmudic school students exemption from military service, mandatory in Israel for men and women from the age of 18.
Formed in December 2022, Netanyahu's government holds together thanks to an alliance between his party, Likud (right-wing), far-right formations, and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties keen to maintain this exemption, increasingly unacceptable to the rest of Israeli society after nearly 20 months of war with the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in Gaza.
On paper, Netanyahu can manage without the support of the seven UTJ deputies, but losing the 11 deputies from Shas (Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party) would cost him his majority if they collectively exited the coalition.
If tensions have been simmering for several weeks with UTJ rabbis, Shas now threatens to leave the coalition, as confirmed to AFP by a source from the party, which demands "a solution before Monday".
Sanctions
At the heart of the dispute is a bill proposed by Yuli Edelstein (Likud), chairman of the Parliamentary Defense Committee, aimed at increasing the enlistment of "Haredim" (those who fear God) and significantly toughening the sanctions against draft evaders.
Probably sensing a changing wind, opposition leader Yair Lapid announced on Wednesday his intention to propose a bill to dissolve Parliament "next week," taking advantage of potential support from the ultra-Orthodox.
The issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription is a recurring theme in Israeli politics.
Due to an arrangement dating back to the founding of the State of Israel in 1948, Haredi men have benefited for decades from a de facto military exemption, provided they dedicate themselves to full-time study of Jewish sacred texts in yeshivas (Talmudic schools).
But this exemption has been challenged by the Supreme Court at the beginning of the century, forcing successive governments to cobble together temporary legislative arrangements to satisfy the ultra-Orthodox, kingmakers and government breakers.
Since June 2024, the executive finds itself under judicial pressure to enlist ultra-Orthodox people absent a law validly guaranteeing their exemption.
'Dilemma'
In April, a military representative stated before a parliamentary committee that of 18,000 draft notifications sent to ultra-Orthodox individuals, only 232 responded positively.
Edelstein proposed during this meeting sanctions against draft evaders, such as forbidding them to leave the country or obtain a driver's license.
The maintenance of the exemption is "an existential issue for the ultra-Orthodox," Emmanuel Navon, a political science professor at Tel Aviv University, reminds AFP, noting that "even if they won’t get anything better with another government, they can still bring down the current cabinet."
According to a poll published in the right-wing daily Israel Hayom in March, 85% of Israeli Jews support a change in the haredim conscription law, with 41% in favor of a law making military service (32 months for men) compulsory for all eligible Haredim.
At 75, Netanyahu, who holds the record for longevity in power in Israel, "considers himself irreplaceable and will run in the next elections" (late 2026 if the current legislature completes its term), says Navon.
However, he adds, between the risk of losing his majority without a law perpetuating the ultra-Orthodox exemption and the risk of losing his electoral base or a revolt within Likud if he yields to the "men in black," the Prime Minister faces "a dilemma."
To save the government, Netanyahu will have to satisfy the various coalition formations on this delicate issue, a political balancing act at which he is a master, but which caused him to fall in December 2018.
