The World Bank building in Washington, April 21, 2025. (Credit: Philippe Hage Boutros/L'Orient-Le Jour)
BEIRUT — The Lebanese delegation's packed schedule during last week’s visit to Washington, held amid a fragile cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel, overshadowed the World Bank's and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) release of their latest regional report.
In the few lines dedicated to Lebanon, World Bank experts indicated that the country's GDP is expected to grow by 4.7 percent in 2025, compared to an anticipated contraction of 7.1 percent for 2024. For its part, the IMF forecasted a decline of 7.4 percent, according to its projections released last week.
In a report box, the World Bank said Lebanon’s modest recovery follows years of "sharp contraction" in economic activity in recent years and could be supported by “the expected implementation of reforms,” along with a rebound in tourism, consumer spending, and financial inflows for reconstruction — even if limited. A “favorable base effect” would also help boost growth, it added.
But the institution warned that risks remain high, especially if the security situation deteriorates. Such instability could hurt “morale, tourism, financial flows and consumption,” while the “indirect effects of mounting uncertainty in global trade” could add further pressure.
The World Bank also expects inflation to stabilize by around 15.2 percent in 2025, which is three times less than the 45.24 percent recorded in 2024 according to official Lebanese figures, but a rate that would remain well above the global average (4.3 percent in 2025, according to the latest IMF projections).
The World Bank's Enterprise Survey revealed that 89 percent of Lebanese companies consider political instability to be the major obstacle to economic growth.
The World Bank is due to publish the next edition of its semi-annual reports on Lebanon by the summer.
Lebanon has been in crisis since 2019, and its leaders have so far postponed the implementation of reforms that could have allowed it to access an IMF assistance program. The war triggered on Oct. 8, 2023, between Hezbollah and Israel, which ended with a fragile cease-fire, has further burdened the country's ledger.
However, during its time in Washington, the Lebanese delegation provided some reasons for hope to the IMF and the World Bank by passing a law significantly amending banking secrecy. The country also laid the groundwork for several new loan agreements with the WB to finance interventions in various sectors, including infrastructure.
The report in question was published on April 23, the third day of the spring meetings, on the eve of the Lebanese vote on the banking secrecy law.
This article was translated from L'Orient-Le Jour.