The Managing Director of the Fund Kristalina Georgieva and the spokesperson of the organization on April 24, 2025, in Washington. Photo by Philippe Hage Boutros/L’Orient-Le Jour
The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, urged countries to resolve trade disputes to "end the uncertainty" that is hindering global economic growth. Speaking at a press conference in Washington, she highlighted that this uncertainty, fueled in part by U.S. tariffs, is the primary reason behind the IMF’s downgraded global economic projections for 2025 and 2026. Georgieva called on nations to "put their finances in order" by reducing imbalances and implementing reforms to stimulate growth.
In its latest World Economic Outlook — a report outlining its main projections for the global economy — the IMF lowered its global growth, now estimated at 2.8 percent in its baseline scenario. The report also presented two other sets of projections — a sign of the increasing difficulty of deciphering a situation marked by multiple uncertainties. It also raised the probability of a global recession risk, increasing from 17 percent to 30 percent, with a 40 percent probability for the United States, which is at the origin of the tariff offensive.
For the IMF, a recession is generally associated with a 2 percent drop in GDP. In cases of severe recessions, the typical production cost is close to 5 percent.
Georgieva emphasized that the direct impact of this crisis would be especially palpable in Asia, but that other regions, less exposed, like the Middle East, Gulf countries or even Africa, could feel significant "indirect effects." These would be particularly linked to the decline in oil prices, driven by weakening global demand due to trade tensions or the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
"The MENA region includes a diverse set of economies, many of which are oil exporters. Historically, these economies experience fluctuations — periods of growth and slowdown are not unusual. For oil-exporting countries, revenues are denominated in U.S. dollars, and when the dollar weakens, it can pose certain challenges. However, it can also be beneficial in many ways — alleviating some pressures and helping countries better cope with their challenges," Georgieva explained.
"Some countries, particularly those in conflict-affected areas like Jordan and Egypt, have faced considerable difficulties. The IMF has been actively involved with these nations, providing support and working closely with their governments. Morocco, for example, has made significant progress in strengthening its macroeconomic framework," she continued.
She also emphasized that the IMF was working to "restore their institutions' capacity and reintegrate them into the global economy, with a particular focus on employment and inclusive growth."
Georgieva did not address the situation in Lebanon, where a delegation arrived in Washington this week to meet with IMF officials on the sidelines of the spring meetings. Lebanon is preparing to enter a financial assistance program following ongoing discussions with IMF experts.
U.S. concerns
A key moment in the press conference came when Georgieva reaffirmed the IMF's commitment to considering the concerns raised by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in shaping its policies. She emphasized that the IMF is an institution of member countries and acts in accordance with their collective will.
On Wednesday, Bessent had urged the IMF and the World Bank to refocus on their core missions of macroeconomic stability and development. He argued that their involvement in issues like climate change had diverted them from these essential goals and diminished their overall effectiveness.
Georgieva acknowledged the significance of the U.S. perspective, noting that the United States, as the IMF's largest shareholder — with 17.4 percent of voting rights on its executive board — plays a crucial role in the institution’s decision-making process. She welcomed Bessent’s ongoing support for the IMF. On the subject of climate change, Georgieva clarified that while the IMF does not have dedicated climate experts, it recognizes that countries facing extreme weather events require the macroeconomic assistance the institution can provide to help mitigate the impact.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.
