
Overview of the Vatican, March 6, 2025. (Credit: AFP/Dimitar Dolkoff/AFP)
Masters of the Vatican clocks since the death of Pope Francis, the cardinals gathered in Rome have set May 7 as the start date of the conclave, which will elect Pope Francis's successor, the Vatican announced on Monday.
The announcement was made at the end of a new "general congregation," a private preparatory meeting attended by 180 cardinals, including more than 100 cardinal electors. According to Vatican rules, on the morning of Wednesday, May 7, the cardinals will participate in a solemn mass in St. Peter's Basilica.
The cardinal electors under 80 will then gather in the Sistine Chapel in the afternoon for this closed-door vote that may last several days. The vote, held in utmost secrecy, includes four ballots per day, two in the morning and two in the afternoon. Before the conclave begins, all cardinals continue to meet every day at the Vatican in "general congregations" to discuss the profile of the future pope and the priorities for the future of the Catholic Church.
The Vatican Museums, which welcome more than five million visitors annually, have announced on their website the closure of the Sistine Chapel for preparations, which include setting up tables and chairs and installing a chimney on the roof.
This chimney, visible to the faithful from St. Peter's Square, emits black smoke if no pope has been elected and white smoke in case of election, through the addition of chemicals. A two-thirds majority of the voters is necessary. Although several cardinals have been presented as favorites ('papabili') by the Italian and international press, such as Italian Pietro Parolin, former Vatican number two, this conclave is particularly open. Pope Francis chose 80 percent of those who will elect his successor and has given more weight to Africa and Asia in the Sacred College.
Surprises conclave
"I believe that if Francis was the pope of surprises, this conclave will be as well," warned Spanish Cardinal José Cobo, in the newspaper El País. The Vatican has observed a nine-day mourning period since the funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday, attended by hundreds of thousands of people over the weekend.
"We feel very small. We have to make decisions for the whole Church, so we really need to pray for us," said Luxembourg Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, a Jesuit and former close adviser to Pope Francis, on Thursday evening. "There is a good climate among us," said Italian Cardinal Gualtiero Bassetti to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera on Sunday, estimating that the conclave, in which he is too old to participate, "will not be long." "Of course, there may be some difficulties because the electors have never been so numerous and do not all know each other," he continued. The name of the leader of more than 1.4 billion Catholics will be announced "urbi et orbi" at the end of the conclave.
Polarized church
For Spanish Cardinal Cristobal Lopez Romero, unlike what the film "Conclave" presents, "we must show ... that we have no secrets, no internal struggles," according to Vatican News, the Vatican's official media. However, "we are in a moment where Catholicism is experiencing various polarizations within itself, so I do not imagine a very, very quick conclave," said Roberto Regoli, a professor at the Pontifical Gregorian University of Rome.
Patrizia Spotti, a 68-year-old Italian present in Rome for the Jubilee, holy year of the Catholic Church, hopes that the next pope "will be like Francis ... a personality open to everyone." Especially since Catholicism is experiencing a "difficult" period and "the churches are empty," she added to AFP.
More than 400,000 people honored the memory of the first South American pope in history on Saturday, whether at the mass in St. Peter's Square at the Vatican, attended by dozens of heads of state and government, or at the passage of his funeral cortege through the streets of Rome. On Sunday, some 270,000 people still crowded to attend a mass in his honor in St. Peter's Square or to parade in front of his simple marble tomb.
For experts, the future pope's ability to unite the Church in an increasingly fractured geopolitical context could be a decisive factor, more than his nationality. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, along with the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, Metropolitan Archbishop Emeritus of Manila, are among the favorites, according to British bookmakers.
While Francis left the image of a reformist pope with a straightforward manner, there is no guarantee that the next pontiff will follow the same path, experts warn. Pope Francis was very different from his predecessor, Benedict XVI, a German intellectual uncomfortable in public, who himself contrasted with the charismatic, sporty and immensely popular Polish Pope John Paul II. The Argentine Jesuit appointed 80 percent of the cardinals destined to elect his successor, but nothing is certain yet for Cardinal Hollerich: "The pope did not appoint clones. They have very different positions on certain points."