Commercial activity in Lebanon experienced a very difficult year in 2024, according to the index developed by the Association of Beirut Merchants and Fransabank to measure, each quarter, the level of retail sales, which is calculated from data collected from a “representative sample covering 45 sectors of goods and services sales.”

The index fell from 42.84 points in the first quarter to 31.37 points at the end of the fourth, a decrease of nearly 27 percent or 11.47 points. At the end of 2023, it stood at 56.09 points, which is 24.72 points more. The values reached in 2024, however, remain well above its lowest level since 2019, which was 16.93 points, recorded at the end of the first quarter of 2023 during the last period of strong instability of the Lebanese pound.

The uniform trajectory of the index in 2024 – 42.84 points in the first quarter, 39.69 in the second, 35.06 in the third, ending at 31.37 points – is consistent with the deterioration of political and security circumstances that marked this period, due to the war between Hezbollah and Israel. However, several nuances not reflected in these results should be noted: The slight improvement in conditions at the beginning of summer before the intensification of the conflict, the better resilience of food retailers compared to others, as well as the activity peaks of furniture stores. These were initially driven by some inhabitants of the bombed areas who could afford to relocate to regions considered safe, then by those who received aid from Hezbollah after the cease-fire took effect on Nov. 27, 2024.

According to the World Bank, the Lebanese GDP contracted by 5.7 percent in 2024, with damages and losses amounting to billions of dollars.