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EXPLAINER

Faced with Israeli provocations, Hezbollah’s dilemma: To retaliate or refrain?

During the first week of January, a monitoring committee meeting is expected to take place in the presence of Amos Hochstein, who is awaited in Lebanon.

Faced with Israeli provocations, Hezbollah’s dilemma: To retaliate or refrain?

A Lebanese soldier in the village of Khiam, southern Lebanon, on Dec. 23, 2024, following the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area under a cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah. (Credit: AFP)

What is Israel playing at? Given the insistence of the Israeli state to intensify its aggressions and incursions into southern Lebanon, two interpretations stand out. It might be an Israeli attempt to challenge the cease-fire agreement by provoking Lebanon and particularly Hezbollah, pushing for a reaction that would reignite the front. Especially since, after the conclusion of the agreement, everything in Syria changed following the fall of the Assad regime, and the Israeli army made significant advances along the Syrian border with Lebanon, allowing it to impose more conditions and alter realities on the ground. Alternatively, it could be an Israeli intent to impose a model for the agreement's implementation mechanism beyond sixty days (the period within which the Israeli army is supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon). Read more...
What is Israel playing at? Given the insistence of the Israeli state to intensify its aggressions and incursions into southern Lebanon, two interpretations stand out. It might be an Israeli attempt to challenge the cease-fire agreement by provoking Lebanon and particularly Hezbollah, pushing for a reaction that would reignite the front. Especially since, after the conclusion of the agreement, everything in Syria changed following the fall of the Assad regime, and the Israeli army made significant advances along the Syrian border with Lebanon, allowing it to impose more conditions and alter realities on the ground. Alternatively, it could be an Israeli intent to impose a model for the agreement's implementation mechanism beyond sixty days (the period within which the Israeli army is supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon). Read...
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