Satellite image of the Parchin engine foundry in Iran, taken on Oct. 27, 2024. (Illustrative photo: Planet Labs PBC/AFP)
Iran and Israel have been locked in a longstanding confrontation that is always at risk of escalating into open conflict. By instrumentalizing a particular branch of Islam that rejects nationalism in favor of an Islamic state, the Iranian theocratic regime partly defines its divine mission as the elimination of Israel. To this end, Iran has established and armed proxies across the region, from Gaza to Yemen, spanning Lebanon and Syria.
The terrorist attack perpetrated by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023 marked a painful turning point for Israel. The Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hailed Hamas's successful operation as a sign of the imminent end of the "Zionist entity." Other religious leaders claimed it foreshadowed the return of the twelfth Imam, a divine figure expected to usher in Islam's global triumph. The brutal attack on civilians shattered Israel's sense of invulnerability, while the months-long campaign in Gaza provided a propaganda windfall for the Iranian regime.
However, Iranian religious leaders do not seek an all-out war, especially in light of the heavy losses suffered by their proxies. Since the U.S. assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Iran has witnessed Israel eliminate more Iranian officials and key leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Many of these strikes, made possible by bold acts of espionage and assassination, demonstrate how effectively the Mossad has infiltrated the ranks of Iran and its proxies. The "axis of resistance" that Iran has spent decades and billions of dollars building now faces unprecedented challenges, undermining the regime's ability to project its strength against Israel.
In this broader context, Iran's religious leaders face a difficult situation. Longstanding international sanctions and the regime's corrupt nepotism have deeply harmed the economy, leading to widespread discontent and persistent political unrest. Ordinary Iranians, often led by women, are courageously demanding equality, freedom and living conditions that match the country's abundant natural and human resources.
Engaging in a grueling war against Israel would risk further destabilizing the regime and could lead to its collapse. Shakespeare wrote that leaders could occupy “busy giddy minds…with foreign quarrels”.
However, Iranian religious leaders are aware that a discontented population may revolt if forced to endure another violent conflict.
Additionally, Iran's proxies used against Israel, U.S. forces and other regional actors are occasionally employed to quell domestic protests. As this network weakens, Iranian religious leaders may feel increasingly vulnerable and may desperately need to reestablish both internal and external deterrence. They must proceed with caution; a war between Israel and the Islamic Republic would inevitably involve the United States, and the Iranians recognize they would stand no chance against such combined military power.
Benjamin Netanyahu also faces significant challenges. A prolonged conflict would drain Israel's resources and could result in significant human losses. It is difficult to predict the potential impact of a costly war on an already deeply divided government. Netanyahu has centered his political legacy on blocking Iran's nuclear ambitions, yet he could be accelerating the very outcome he fears most.
Ali Khamenei has long been the chief architect of the country's nuclear program, and the mullahs have relied on the Western illusion that concessions and promises of compromise could deter their pursuit of nuclear status. The regime claims to be bound by a fatwa from Khamenei prohibiting the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction and has consistently asserted that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. However, many who have repeatedly echoed this rhetoric now assert that all the pieces for the bomb puzzle are in place.
Immense risks
This scenario obviously carries immense risks. Rushing to complete the bomb would almost certainly prompt preventive strikes by Israel—and potentially the U.S.—against Iranian nuclear facilities, likely triggering a broader conflict. Iranian proxies could be deployed against U.S. bases, Saudi oil facilities, international shipping routes and other targets, leading to devastating consequences for the region and the global economy.
Both Israel and Iran are currently walking a fine line. Israel is still grappling with the loss of its post-Oct. 7 aura of invulnerability, while Iran is struggling to maintain its regional influence. Both countries are aware that an all-out war would be catastrophic, yet neither can afford to fully back down.
The United States and its allies, who have long relied on tactical and corrective responses to each escalation, must urgently develop a comprehensive strategy. Ultimately, the only true solution lies in a democratic Iran. Neither the Israeli nor the American military can achieve this goal; only the Iranian population can, and it has shown increasing determination in recent years. For now, the global community must confront and contain the regime's unacceptable behavior while supporting the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.
