Who would have said on the morning of Oct. 7, 2023, just hours before the start of the so-called "al-Aqsa Flood" operation, that it would last over a year and eventually morph into a "Flood of Fire on Lebanon"? Certainly not those who were gathered at that moment in a fortified location in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
A few hours earlier, a high-level Hamas delegation, led by Ismail Haniyeh and including Khalil al-Hayya and Saleh Arouri, had arrived from Tehran for talks with Hezbollah’s Secretary-General. They were there to inform him about the nature of the operation that was about to take place and to ask Hassan Nasrallah what Hezbollah's position would be, and whether the party intended to join the battle.
According to reliable sources close to both Hamas and Hezbollah, Nasrallah felt that the moment for "the decisive battle" had not yet arrived. Consequently, he reportedly told them that Hezbollah would limit itself to opening a "support front," meaning limited participation aimed at helping Gaza by increasing pressure on the Israeli army. Just a few hours after that meeting, the al-Aqsa Flood operation was launched, and it has continued for more than a year.
At first, rumors circulated that Hamas was disappointed with Hezbollah’s limited involvement. However, over the months, coordination between the two groups was restored, and the war has persisted at different intensities on each front.
At that time, both Hezbollah and Iran believed that more significant involvement in the battle would not be necessary, as the Americans had sent multiple messages indicating they did not want the war to expand, which they had repeatedly conveyed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In fact, what was interpreted by the Iranians and Hezbollah as an indirect confirmation of this stance, after Arouri was assassinated in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Jan. 2, 2024 — a move that was seen as crossing tacit red lines in the conflict — both U.S. officials and even some Israeli voices quickly clarified that they did not seek to escalate the conflict.
This balance held for nearly 11 months, and both Hezbollah and Iran believed in it. Whenever some parties, or even their own supporters, criticized them for not responding firmly to "Israeli provocations," they would simply remind people that they should not give the Israelis what they want — a direct confrontation involving the U.S., which was Israel's ultimate goal.
But that was before the Sept. 27, 2024 deadline. On that day, there was widespread optimism. French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian had come to Beirut to encourage Prime Minister Najib Mikati to travel to New York so that Lebanon would have high-level representation in ongoing negotiations around a Franco-American document (which was more French than American).
According to diplomatic sources at the time, the Israelis had welcomed the proposal of a 21-day cease-fire to pave the way for diplomatic talks regarding the strict implementation of Resolution 1701. However, by the time Mikati arrived in New York, the general mood had shifted. The Israelis no longer seemed as open to the proposal, and when pressed by the French and Americans, they responded that they preferred to wait for Netanyahu, who was en route to New York. Upon his arrival at the U.N. headquarters, Netanyahu took the podium at the General Assembly and delivered an escalation speech that shattered the prevailing optimism. Moments later, the Israelis launched an intense bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing Hezbollah’s Secretary-General and many of his companions.
From that moment, the entire situation changed, and Lebanon shifted from being a "support front" to becoming a primary front. The war and bombings were no longer confined to the south or even the Bekaa Valley. Suddenly, it seemed there were no more limits or red lines. What happened for the support front to collapse and give way to an all-out war after holding for nearly 11 months?
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent speeches show that caution has been abandoned, and no one is being spared. Netanyahu views this as a historic opportunity to fulfill Israel’s long-standing ambition of reaching the Litani River and possibly beyond. Diplomatic sources in Lebanon have noted that throughout the past year, numerous envoys had warned their Lebanese counterparts about Netanyahu’s intentions and repeatedly advised them to shut down the support front for Gaza. However, these warnings were not taken seriously, and ultimately, Netanyahu was given the pretext he had been waiting for. Additionally, Netanyahu believes that a series of assassinations targeting Hezbollah's leadership has weakened the group, making this the opportune moment to remove Hezbollah from the Lebanese scene.
On the Lebanese side, there is growing conviction that, regardless of Hezbollah’s or Lebanon’s actions, Netanyahu’s plan was always to wage an open war against the country. As evidence, it is noted that Israel had been preparing an attack using pagers and walkie-talkies since 2015, according to the Washington Post. Netanyahu was simply waiting for the right moment. That moment, according to him, arrived when he decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership, while the U.S. administration was preoccupied with its upcoming presidential election (Nov. 5). He believes he now has free rein to act without accountability.
Today, analysts suggest three things could stop Netanyahu: a devastating Iranian attack in response to Israeli retaliation, the failure of the ground operation currently being conducted by Israeli soldiers in the south, or a decisive American intervention.
Lebanese Red Cross says 4 rescuers wounded in Israeli strike on Sour