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ANALYSIS

Nasrallah: We suffered a 'hard blow'... but Israel failed

"The scenario of an all-out war is exaggerated," said Nasrallah, who is stalling on his party's response to the attack on their telecommunication equipment.

Nasrallah: We suffered a 'hard blow'... but Israel failed

Residents gather in a cafe in Beirut's southern suburbs to watch a speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 19, 2024. (Credit: Anwar Amro/AFP)

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah delivered an unsurprising speech on Thursday. Despite the recent bloody explosions that rocked Lebanon, which have killed 37 people and injured thousands more, Nasrallah stuck to his usual rhetoric. The address, delivered at the last minute, came after he initially planned to wait until the first anniversary of Oct. 7 to appear publicly.

"What prompted me to speak today are the events of the last two days, which require words, an assessment and a stance," he said.

Nasrallah described the Israeli sabotage operation, which caused the explosion of thousands of wireless telecommunication devices (pagers and walkie-talkies) used by Hezbollah members, as both "a major and unprecedented aggression" and a "heavy blow" to the party. However, he argued that despite Israel's technological superiority, it had failed to achieve any of its three objectives with the operation.

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'To Netanyahu'

Hezbollah’s leader said Israel’s primary goal was to pressure the party into stopping the "support front" for Hamas, which was opened on Oct. 8 as part of the "unity of fronts" strategy called for by Iran, to which Hezbollah is aligned. Since then, tens of thousands of Israelis have been forced to evacuate northern Israel, with no plans to return until this front is shut. This pressure — financial, political, and popular — is something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government could do without.

"Israel violated all laws and red lines, without regard for anything, neither humanitarian nor ethical, and tried to kill 5,000 people in less than two minutes," Nasrallah said. "But we are telling the enemy that the Lebanese front will not stop until the war in Gaza is over! We've been saying that for nearly 12 months now. Despite all these massacres, I say it: no matter the obstacles and sacrifices, the resistance in Lebanon will not cease its support for Gaza, the West Bank, and Palestine."

Nasrallah also claimed that Hezbollah’s "support front" has become a key bargaining chip for Hamas in cease-fire negotiations with Israel. He reiterated that "the only solution" to returning the displaced in northern Israel (in areas near Lebanon) is ending the war in Gaza. Questioning the head of the Israeli government, he asked: "You, Netanyahu, do you really think you can bring them back by force?"

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Nasrallah claimed that the second objective "foiled" by Hezbollah was Israel's attempt to weaken popular support for the "resistance." "They wanted our people to say 'enough' and push us back," he said. "But in the end, even the wounded are showing their strength and their desire to return to the field once they recover. That in itself is a response to the enemy."

He thanked the Lebanese people for their "solidarity, far from politics" with the victims, noting what he described as "the largest blood donation campaign in Lebanon’s history." After the initial explosions on Tuesday, even opponents of Hezbollah, such as Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, expressed sympathy with the thousands of victims, stating that "this is not the time to talk politics." Images of young men waiting to donate blood outside a hospital in Beriut's predominantly Sunni area of Tariq al-Jadideh, a former scene of clashes between Sunni factions and Hezbollah two decades ago, also circulated widely.

"We thank the Lebanese government, the Health Ministry, hospitals, health centers, healthcare institutions, doctors and nurses," Nasrallah said. He also expressed gratitude to "friendly countries" that provided aid and showed solidarity with Lebanon, though he only mentioned those aligned with the pro-Iran axis — Iran, Iraq, and Syria — while omitting other states such as Jordan and Egypt.

Finally, Israel aims to strike at the party's "structure" by assassinating its leaders. "The enemy knows that what it has done does not shake our organization, strength or determination. On the contrary, it makes us even stronger," Nasrallah added, aiming to "reassure those who had doubts."

He also revealed that Hezbollah’s top commanders were using "ancient" pager models that Israel had failed to sabotage. "We will not fall. We will grow stronger and prepare for worse," he declared.

'Your hell'

Addressing the future of Hezbollah’s support front following the sabotage operation and repeated Israeli threats, Nasrallah considered several possibilities. "Some speak of military escalation, others of days of fighting or even war," he said. However, he dismissed the idea stating that "the scenario of all-out war is exaggerated."

Nasrallah warned Tel Aviv against attempting a ground operation in Lebanon. "The commander of the northern region, a fool, has proposed creating a security zone. Welcome, we really want you to set foot in Lebanon," he quipped. "What you see as a threat is an opportunity for us. South Lebanon will be a trap, an abyss and hell for you."

He stressed that even if Israel established a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, it would not prevent continued bombardment of northern Israel, nor would it allow the displaced residents to return home. "We will target both fronts," he vowed, aiming to intimidate Israel while reassuring Hezbollah’s base amid fears of a renewed Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon, 24 years after its liberation.

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Regarding Hezbollah’s response to what Nasrallah called the "massacres" perpetrated by Israel, the leader remained more evasive than usual — likely an attempt to buy time and avoid a brutal response that could plunge the region into the unknown. "There is no doubt that severe punishment will follow the aggression, where the Israelis expect it and where they don't," he said, repeating a familiar line. Hezbollah must respond to preserve what remains of its deterrent capability, especially after the perceived failure of its retaliation following the assassination of its military chief, Fouad Shukur.

However, Nasrallah added a new twist: "Allow me to change my method. I won’t speak about the time or place of the response. No one will know until the moment comes, except for the innermost circle of the command." This remark hinted at a growing sense of mistrust within Hezbollah, suggesting the group may have been infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. It could also mean that Hezbollah’s response might focus on security operations rather than military action.

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This strategy seems twofold: first, to demonstrate Hezbollah’s ability to retaliate despite Israel’s technological superiority; and second, to avoid providing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a pretext for launching a full-scale war on Lebanon — a scenario that the party seems to fear, even as it described the Israeli operations as a "declaration of war"

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah delivered an unsurprising speech on Thursday. Despite the recent bloody explosions that rocked Lebanon, which have killed 37 people and injured thousands more, Nasrallah stuck to his usual rhetoric. The address, delivered at the last minute, came after he initially planned to wait until the first anniversary of Oct. 7 to appear publicly."What prompted...