The 'ring road,' connecting eastern and western Beirut, as seen on the first day of Lebanon’s coronavirus lockdown, 14 Jan, 2021. (Credit: Joseph Eid/AFP)
BEIRUT — An analysis conducted by the Artificial Intelligence (AI) unit at Siren Analytics, a private company that partnered with the Lebanese government to create the IMPACT platform used to organize the country’s COVID-19 measures, found that the effects of lockdowns and vaccination campaigns in Lebanon against COVID-19 helped to prevent an additional 6,330 deaths over a period of nine months.
Here’s what we know:
• The analysis found that the preventive measures implemented through the Inter Ministerial and Municipal Platform for Assessment Coordination and Tracking (IMPACT) had a positive effect on reducing both the numbers of COVID-19 cases and related deaths across Lebanon.
• Lockdowns prevented higher peaks in the numbers of cases and deaths, while the vaccination program reduced mortality rates despite the increase in the daily number of positive cases, the report said, adding that COVID-19 related deaths could have decreased further if the number of vaccinated residents increased across the country.
• The first recorded case in Lebanon was on Feb. 21, 2020. The government adopted strict measures such as a complete national lockdown shortly after that lasted for 70 days, as the cases exponentially spiked. A series of other lockdowns were enforced as well, in an attempt to reduce not only the number of positive cases, but also the “mounting pressure on hospitals across Lebanon,” the report noted, especially after the Beirut post explosion on Aug. 4, 2020 destoryed many and left the other hospitals overwhelmed with very little resources.
• Almost a year after the first recorded case of COVID-19 in the country, Lebanon received the first batch of vaccines and according to the report, began inoculating the elderly and vulnerable populations first, followed by younger cohorts. Today, approximately “40 percent of the population in Lebanon is vaccinated.”
• The analysis was conducted on two datasets, the first was provided by IMPACT, recording the daily number of positive Covid-19 cases and vaccinations, while the second was provided by Our World in Data, recording the daily number of Covid-19 related deaths. The timeline of the data spanned over mid-2020 to end-2021, better reflecting the variation of the Covid-19 cases and deaths when the lockdowns were imposed and the vaccination began.
• The AI unit adopted three approaches to analyze the effect of vaccination campaigns and lockdowns in Lebanon. The first approach studies the relationship between the number of daily vaccinations and the daily number of deaths, from Sept. 1, 2020 to Feb. 26, 2022. The second approach involves examining the effects of the lockdowns and the total vaccination numbers on deaths and infections, respectively. Finally, the third approach examines the effect of both lockdowns and the vaccination campaign on cases and deaths by forecasting these values, while training the model only on the period before the lockdown and before the start of the vaccination.