A member of the Asayish, the Kurdish security forces, on March 23 on a deserted street in Qamishli, where measures were imposed to combat the spread of coronavirus. Rodi Said/Reuters
The Middle East is not really prepared to face this epidemic, which is a ticking time-bomb for the region where health infrastructure is most often deficient. Also, two humanitarian disasters are already underway, in Syria and Yemen, where millions of refugees live in camps. Fierce political tensions complicate, even more so than elsewhere, the indispensable cooperation between states to weather the storm. The new coronavirus epidemic is a crisis that adds to the other crises without eliminating them. Moreover stability of most countries in the region, not to say their survival, is at risk. And for good reason, the crisis hits where it hurts the most: the shortcomings and incompetence of states which most often lack economic means, administrative agencies or scientific skills to face such a challenge.
“Health facilities in the region are not prepared to cope with a large influx of patients coming in at the same time because of an infection,” said Fadi el-Jardali, health policy professor at the American University of Beirut (AUB). "The countries of the region are either at war (Syria, Yemen), out of breath (Iraq, Jordan, Egypt), bankrupt (Lebanon, Iran), or relying on increasingly fragile economic models (the petro-monarchies of the Gulf)."
El-Jardali noted that in addition to the fragility of these states, transparency is lacking and people distrust their leaders in most cases. "This only complicates the fight against the virus’ spread. It is impossible to trust the data provided by the authorities, which treat the dead as mere numbers. How could an effective screening be carried out under such extremely precarious conditions? "
Denial and Concealment
Ironically, Iran, the country at the heart of most controversies in the region, is the worst-hit by the coronavirus in the Middle East, with a death toll rising to 2077 and 27,017 infections in total on March 25. The US sanctions have clearly not helped Iran’s authorities cope with the crisis, as the country lacks medical equipment. But Iran's lies and attempts to hide all signals of weakness are the main cause of the virus’s spread and leads many experts to doubt the real number of deaths announced. With such denial and concealment, several countries in the region have followed suit.
For example, Syria admitted to its first coronavirus case on March 22; after the regime had long denied the presence of the virus in the country, against all logic. On March 23, it announced the closure of its borders with Lebanon. After nine years of a war that killed hundreds of thousands and ruined the economy, the Syrian regime, crippled by international sanctions, isn’t equipped to contain the epidemic. What can be said then about Idleb Governorate, the last region still in the hands of the rebels and Jihadists and where the worst humanitarian crisis of the 21st century is unfolding according to the UN?
Not to be outdone, Egypt has initially turned a blind eye to the virus’ s spread, resorting to lies and repression, while several tourists who visited the country have tested positive upon their return home. With 100 million inhabitants, a very high population density and weak infrastructure, the Egyptian authorities could be quickly overtaken by the epidemic, while the official figures are set at 327 cases and 14 deaths. The authorities have decided to close schools and universities, places of worship, museums and archaeological sites and airports, as well as a night-time closure of cafés, restaurants and discos until March 31.
Conflicts in the Background
Gulf countries seem to be better armed to respond to the epidemic. “In general, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have a well-developed health system compared to the rest of the Arab world,” said Salman Rawaf, professor of public health at Imperial College London. Riyadh reported on March 25 its second coronavirus death and a total of 900 registered cases, the highest in the Gulf. But the petro-monarchies will be hurt most economically with the collapse of oil prices to $25 per barrel which would incur losses in tens of billions of dollars for these oil-producing countries. The Gulf countries will be forced to tap into their reserves and may even have to accelerate their economic transition model. This would mean revising the social pact on which these countries are founded, a move that may ultimately cause unrest.
Furthermore, the economic crisis in the Gulf countries would affect the whole region as millions of expatriates from Middle East countries work there. With a "cushion of protection", the GCC countries have an advantage over the other countries in facing the crisis. Faced with plummeting oil prices, Iraq, for example, may be unable to secure the cost of its public administration because of the shortfall.
The coronavirus epidemic seems to have pushed the region's conflicts to the background as countries are too busy facing this new challenge. But one can’t exclude the likelihood that some parties would benefit from the situation to restart hostilities, as evidenced by the regular strikes against US forces in Iraq, attributed to pro-Iranian Shiite militias.
With several Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates, providing Iran with medical supplies can Covid-19 help ease tensions in the region? This will be one of the main challenges posed by this crisis, especially for the Palestinians. Gaza, turned into an open-air prison, would particularly need the help of its enemy Israel, probably the most equipped country in the region to weather this storm.
(This article was originally published in French on the 24th of March)