Ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in a drone image taken from Musandam, Oman, June 1, 2026. (Credit: Reuters/Stringer TPX)
Even if the war in the Middle East ended immediately, disrupted global humanitarian supply chains would not fully recover before 2027, U.N. officials warned Tuesday.
Nearly 100 days after the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that triggered the war, the consequences are being felt far beyond the region, said Jean-Cedric Meeus, UNICEF's chief of global transport and logistics.
"The disruption to the global humanitarian supply chain is impacting children across the globe, with continued congestion in global supply chain routes and higher costs," Meeus told reporters in Geneva via video link from Mogadishu, Somalia.
Weeks of indirect U.S.-Iran talks, threats and military exchanges have failed to end the war or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for Gulf oil and gas exports.
"What begins as a disruption in routes through the Strait of Hormuz spirals directly into a humanitarian crisis," Meeus said.
He warned that rising transportation costs and persistent delays are forcing aid agencies to make difficult choices at a time of shrinking humanitarian funding.
"Every extra dollar spent on transport means less money spent on aid for children," he said.
Meeus said air freight capacity has tightened across the Middle East, some airlines have suspended service to destinations in Africa and port congestion is spreading across the continent.
Air freight costs for vaccine shipments from India to Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo have risen by 50% to 70%, he added.
"There are so many ripple effects," Meeus said.
Even if an agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, UNICEF does not expect conditions for its supply chains to improve before the end of the year.
Long-term effects
The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that oil price shocks caused by the war are hitting developing countries particularly hard.
"A geopolitical shock is becoming a development shock for countries with the least capacity to absorb it," UNCTAD spokesman Marcelo Risi said.
"Whenever a cease-fire or even a peace agreement is reached, these impacts linger over time. They don't fade away, and some might even become structural."
The World Health Organization also reported worsening fuel shortages and mounting pressure on health systems.
WHO spokesperson Christian Lindmeier said the most severe effects are being felt in Cuba, Gaza, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan and Yemen.
"Refined fuel shortages, particularly diesel, remain the principal operational threat to health systems because of dependence on generators, cold chains, ambulances, water systems and humanitarian logistics," he said.
