Travelers line up at a TSA security checkpoint at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, on March 20, 2026. (Credit: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP)
An increase in airfare prices is "inevitable" given the surge in hydrocarbon prices caused by the war in the Middle East, the director general of IATA, the world's leading airline association, said Friday.
The price of a barrel of jet fuel has doubled since the Israeli-American attack on Iran on Feb. 28, a rise even greater than that of crude oil, Willie Walsh noted at a conference organized by the Association of Professional Journalists in Aeronautics and Space (AJPAE).
Airlines had planned to devote an average of 26 percent of their operating expenses to fuel this year, based on jet fuel at $88 a barrel, Walsh reminded. On Thursday, it stood at $216. However, the average profit margin for these companies, although close to historic highs, is currently at 4 percent.
"You don't have to be a genius to deduce that the additional costs airlines will face, if the situation persists, will far exceed what they can absorb," added Walsh, whose association brings together 360 carriers accounting for 85 percent of global traffic. "So it is inevitable that ticket prices will increase," he emphasized.
"We are already seeing this in some markets, particularly in the United States." Several European airlines have recently announced fare hikes on long-haul routes.
Walsh said that the magnitude of the current crisis, which is directly affecting Gulf airlines forced to cancel a large proportion of their flights, is "nothing like Covid," when nearly two-thirds of air passenger volumes evaporated in 2020.
"I would compare it to the crises we experienced after the tragic events of 9/11," when transatlantic flight traffic collapsed for a few months before recovering, he explained.
For Walsh, "underlying demand remains strong" for air travel, even though rising ticket prices "will have consequences" for consumer behavior.
In such crises, "people still travel, but they go for shorter periods," he assured. "So this probably has more consequences for hotels than for airlines."
