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War in Iran: The 3 major military unknowns

As the conflict escalates, supplies, endurance, and political will may matter more than tactical gains.

War in Iran: The 3 major military unknowns

A plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, March 3, 2026. (Credit: Atta Kenare/AFP)

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran pits actors with different military capabilities, strategic priorities, and thresholds of tolerance against one another. Even though the Islamic Republic is militarily outmatched, all sides seem locked in a war of attrition, assessing not only the opponent’s arsenal but also its endurance.On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump showed little appetite for de-escalation, saying it was “too late” to negotiate – a sign that the conflict could be protracted. How long can Iran sustain its ballistic missile campaign?Before the outbreak of hostilities, Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal was estimated at around 2,000 missiles, though the exact figure remains uncertain. But the central issue is not only the size of its stockpile; it also concerns the survival of launch infrastructure. A missile cannot be fired...
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran pits actors with different military capabilities, strategic priorities, and thresholds of tolerance against one another. Even though the Islamic Republic is militarily outmatched, all sides seem locked in a war of attrition, assessing not only the opponent’s arsenal but also its endurance.On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump showed little appetite for de-escalation, saying it was “too late” to negotiate – a sign that the conflict could be protracted. How long can Iran sustain its ballistic missile campaign?Before the outbreak of hostilities, Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal was estimated at around 2,000 missiles, though the exact figure remains uncertain. But the central issue is not only the size of its stockpile; it also concerns the survival of launch infrastructure. A missile cannot be...
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