Israeli strikes on Iran: Our co-editor-in-chief Anthony Samrani has answered your questions

Thank you for your many questions, and we apologize for those we couldn’t get to.

The news is fast-moving, and we have to get back to it!

To follow all the developments in real time, join our live now. You can find it here.

A question from Nicolas:

It is clear that Netanyahu no longer cares about anything. Will the Lebanese economy survive another summer without foreign tourists?

Hello Nicolas, thank you for joining us.

The Lebanese economy is already in a pitiful state. Without structural reforms, it’s hard to see how it could recover even if tourists return. That said, a summer without foreign tourists would be very bad news for Lebanon.

And another from Yacine:

A big thank you for your work. What reaction can we expect from the Iranian regime, and especially from its proxies in the self-proclaimed Axis of Resistance?

Hello Yacine, thank you for joining us,

For me, this is now the main question. Israel is determined and benefits from the support of the United States. What can Iran do under these conditions? If it does not respond strongly, Israel will be encouraged to continue its strikes and eliminate all the heads of the regime. But does it still have the capacity to respond other than through a symbolic and limited action? And can it even afford an open war with Israel and the United States?

The Iranian regime wants to survive. The whole question today is what it sees as the best strategy to achieve this. Is it an agreement from a position of great weakness or an escalation on all fronts, which might, for example, involve exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty and accelerating uranium enrichment? I believe Iran will try to play both sides — a controlled escalation alongside an attempt to reach an agreement on terms acceptable to it at the same time. But that path is very narrow, if not almost nonexistent.

Here’s a question from Michael:

What does this escalation mean for President Aoun’s push to reclaim the monopoly on weapons?

Hello Michael, thank you for your question.

In the long run, it could work in his favor. On one hand, the weakening of the Iranian regime would further isolate Hezbollah; on the other, disarming Hezbollah could be part of a potential agreement with the United States. That said, the situation remains too uncertain to say definitively at this point.

We continue with a question from Pierre:

Hello to the OLJ team. First of all, thank you for your impeccable work. My question is: Does the Israeli army aim to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei and/or President Massoud Pezeshkian?

Hello Pierre, thank you for your question.

It’s difficult to answer definitively at this stage. On one hand, nothing can be ruled out. On the other, Israel and the U.S. will still need interlocutors on the Iranian side. The objective is regime change — but in the sense of changing the regime’s core nature, not necessarily the individuals who make it up, whether by consent or by force.

Next question comes from Anne-Sophie Mercier:

Hello Anthony Samrani, and thank you for your excellent work. By attacking Iran, isn’t Israel shooting itself in the foot? At some point, countries in the region might grow tired of a state that does whatever it wants without anyone being able to respond. What do you think?

Hello Anne-Sophie, thank you for your question.

Before reading your message, I was actually concluding my previous answer along similar lines. Israel is the main regional power. It not only holds undeniable superiority but also enjoys almost unwavering support from the West. This is likely to encourage it to act without any limits across the region, which is already the case in many theaters. But is this project of total domination sustainable in the long run? Despite its superiority, Israel has nothing else to offer the populations and states of the region besides the logic of force. A backlash, in this sense, seems inevitable.

We have two questions from abroad:

1- Is there a risk of internal destabilization in Iran?

2- Could one of the objectives of the Israeli attack be to rally Western countries behind Israel? To divert attention from a possible recognition of a Palestinian state?

Hello to our friends abroad, thank you for your questions.

I believe I’ve already touched on some of this. It’s clear that Benjamin Netanyahu also wants to divert attention from the ruthless war he’s waging in Gaza and to rally Western countries and various Israeli political parties to his cause. But, at the risk of being wrong, I think this remains secondary in this situation. The primary goal is to put an end to the “export of the Islamic revolution,” whatever form that may take moving forward.

If he succeeds, Netanyahu will establish an era of Israeli hegemony in the region, with all that implies for Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the Gulf countries, and even Turkey. Paradoxically, if the Iranian issue disappears, the Palestinian question will regain its central place in the eyes of the region’s populations and regimes — and potentially external actors as well.

Next, we have a question from Nahil:

We’re hearing conflicting reports from both countries about these attacks. How can we know who’s telling the truth? Do we have any way to verify for ourselves?

Hello Nahil, thank you for your question.

As with any war, propaganda runs rampant. That said, the Iranians have confirmed not only the scale of the Israeli attack but also the damage it caused.

Raymond Chouaib asks:

What might be the consequences of this escalation for Lebanon?

Hello Raymond, thank you for your question.

Hezbollah was at the core of Iran’s deterrence strategy against Israel. It was Iran’s main tool to prevent Israel from striking it directly. So, can we imagine that at a time when Tehran needs it most, it would not use this card? Yes, we can. Because the “axis” has collapsed, because Hezbollah is no longer what it once was, and in any case lacks the capacity to confront Israel effectively. It is therefore possible that Lebanon might remain outside of all this — provided, of course, that Israel sees it the same way, which is far from guaranteed.

Let’s say there are two timelines. The immediate one will depend on the degree of escalation and the involvement of regional players, as well as the calculations of Tehran and Tel Aviv. Will Tehran accept to sign an agreement from such a position of weakness? Does it have the means to reverse the trend? And will Israel avoid falling into the hubris of trying to completely eliminate Iran and all its allies?

In the longer term, we can already expect this episode to further weaken Hezbollah and accelerate calls for its disarmament, which could provoke additional tensions within Lebanon’s internal scene.

The next question is from Nadine Meouchy:

Hello Anthony, and thank you for your excellent work. There are rumors in the press suggesting that one of the reasons behind the Israeli operation is that Iran may have asked Hezbollah to take action in northern Lebanon. What do you think?

Hello Nadine, thank you for your question and for being here with us.

I have no information to support that claim. Hezbollah has not responded to the numerous cease-fire violations by Israel in recent months and seems to be keeping its distance from this current escalation. So I’m quite skeptical about those reports.

I believe the timing is primarily linked to the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu has, for several months, had a unique opportunity to do something he has long wanted to do: deliver a major blow to the Iranian regime. The collapse of the “Axis of Resistance” and the destruction of Iran’s air defense system created an unprecedented opening. He was just waiting for the green light from his American ally to seize it.

The fact that Iran recently ramped up its uranium enrichment program and began rebuilding its defense capabilities likely encouraged the Israeli decision. Of course, Netanyahu also has domestic political considerations, and regional ones related to Gaza or the upcoming Franco-Saudi summit, but these seem secondary. In his mind, what began last night was bound to happen eventually.

We begin with a question from Axelle Motte:

Is the fall of the Iranian government a realistic scenario, or purely wishful thinking?

Hello Axelle, thank you for your question.

Given everything that has happened in the region since Oct. 7, 2023, I would be cautious about ruling out scenarios that may have once seemed purely utopian. The Israeli operation goes far beyond a simple “preemptive strike against nuclear facilities” — it has wiped out a significant portion of Iran’s top military leadership. We also don’t yet know whether this operation will continue. If Iran doesn’t respond forcefully, Israel may be tempted to carry on with its strikes. And it’s unclear whether the U.S. will become further involved in this regional escalation.

That said, the main goal of the Israeli attack is not a regime change, and Donald Trump has no desire to get entangled in a major conflict in the Middle East. Considering the nature of Iran’s security apparatus — composed of the army, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij militia — toppling the regime would likely require significant troop deployment on the ground. And there’s currently no organized, armed opposition within Iran.

That being said, the regime’s survival is very much at stake. It is already weakened, deeply unpopular domestically, diplomatically isolated, and has not resolved the issue of who will succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. This moment could accelerate its collapse to the point where we cannot rule out internal conflict between the regime’s various factions, possibly leading to a takeover by one of them.

What does seem likely is that this regime, as it was conceived and has evolved since 1979, is no longer sustainable. What shape it will take next is, at this point, very difficult to predict.

Hello everyone,

Thank you for joining us here! Our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani, will begin answering your questions shortly.

Hello,

On Friday, June 13 at 3 p.m. Beirut time, our co-editor-in-chief, Anthony Samrani, will be answering all your questions here about the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

You can already send your questions to the following address: livechatolj@lorientlejour.com.