Official tally of Palestinians killed in Gaza likely underestimated by 41%

The official Palestinian death toll from the Israeli offensive in Gaza is likely underestimated by 41 percent over the first nine months of the conflict, according to a new academic study published in The Lancet.

The statistical analysis conducted by scholars from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions used a statistical method called "capture-recapture analysis."

The researchers estimated the number of casualties from the Israeli assault on the Palestinian enclave between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 at 64,260, representing the number of deaths caused by traumatic injuries.

This figure is 41 percent higher than that reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza, with the study explaining that the ability to maintain electronic records of deaths deteriorated as the Israeli military campaign continued.

The peer-reviewed study also specifies that 59.1 percent of those killed were women, children and people over the age of 65. The study does not provide an estimate of the number of Palestinian fighters killed.

As of Jan. 9, 2025, the Palestinian Ministry of Health stated that the official death toll had surpassed 46,000 killed.