French President Emmanuel Macron (L) speaks with Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati on the sidelines of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 25, 2024. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
Lebanese officials say expectations need to be kept in check as the France-organized conference of support for Lebanon kicks off on Thursday.
According to them, France deserves credit for making every effort to put the Lebanese issue on the international agenda and to find effective ways to support the country. However, the prospect of a cease-fire or even a truce is not really on the agenda for the conference.
The event will focus on two main points: humanitarian assistance, where France is fully committed and seeking to rally other partners, such as its European allies; and support for the Lebanese army, the only institution still standing. The army urgently needs substantial backing to carry out its mission during this particularly delicate period and remains a crucial symbol of Lebanese sovereignty. Finally, the conference is also expected to be an opportunity to reflect on what Lebanon should become once this crisis is over.
According to those familiar with the matter, the conference’s agenda was set based on practical possibilities, with the primary aim of providing concrete assistance to the Lebanese people. France’s approach in Lebanon aligns with the idea that its role goes beyond specific interests, fitting into a broader historical context.
Moreover, France is currently one of the few countries still maintaining dialogue with Iran, which, however, was not invited to attend. This would have necessitated inviting the Israelis as well, which would have significantly altered the nature of the event.
On the American side, the Secretary of State said that he will not be attending. There had been some discussion about the possible participation of the U.S. presidential envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, though his attendance has yet to be confirmed, even though he is in close contact with the French envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian.
France’s aim with this conference is not to lay the groundwork for a solution to the ongoing war, but rather to support Lebanon as a sovereign state and United Nations member, and to help project it into a more stable future. France has rallied its European partners as well as several Arab states, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others, in an effort to assist Lebanon and the Lebanese people as much as possible.
With this in mind, the Lebanese delegation, which will be led by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, has been asked to prepare a clear dossier outlining Lebanon’s expectations and its actual needs.
As for the possibility of a cease-fire or truce, discussions are taking place at a different level. In principle, it is Hochstein who is handling that matter. The French are well aware that the Americans have more leverage at their disposal to push for a solution and can influence Israel’s position.
Contrary to what was reported in Lebanon before Hochstein’s visit, this may not be his final mission in Beirut. He chose this timing because of the widening confrontation between Lebanon and Israel, as the ground operation approaches the end of its first month. His visit also comes in the wake of Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah’s command structure. The main goal was to gauge whether the Lebanese are now prepared to “truly” implement Resolution 1701, rather than just issuing statements.
According to Lebanese parties who met with him, Hochstein is not looking to amend the resolution, as doing so would require a Security Council meeting, risking vetoes from China or Russia. Instead, the aim is to establish a mechanism for implementing the resolution. On this front, the Israelis proposed security arrangements that would allow them to directly monitor the border area in southern Lebanon to prevent any potential rebuilding of Hezbollah’s installations — an idea rejected by the Lebanese side.
France, meanwhile, suggested returning to the mechanism adopted in April 1996, established by then-President Jacques Chirac and Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri after the Israeli operation known as “Grapes of Wrath.” At that time, the “April Understandings” created a monitoring committee composed of the U.S., France, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. France believes the committee was effective and that a similar approach could be revived, even if some members are replaced. The French consider themselves directly concerned with the situation in southern Lebanon due to their significant contribution to UNIFIL forces.
However, diplomatic sources following the issue suggest that an agreement is still far from being reached. On the one hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to discuss a halt to hostilities until Hezbollah surrenders, while on the other, Hezbollah appears to have regained some of its strength and shows no signs of yielding to Israeli demands. So far, the Americans have maintained an ambiguous stance, leaving their Lebanese and even European interlocutors with the impression that all options remain on the table.
The main actors do not appear ready for an agreement. Some are betting on internal unrest in Lebanon to shift the country’s official stance, but so far, there is no indication that this will happen. For now, efforts are focused on damage control, with the understanding that while the upcoming U.S. presidential election is significant, it is unlikely to have a quick or decisive impact. In this context, tomorrow’s Paris conference remains the only concrete option on the table.
No fewer than 70 countries to back the army
Convened by French President Emmanuel Macron, the international conference in support of Lebanon’s population and sovereignty is set to take place on Thursday in Paris. According to sources, it will host representatives from no fewer than 70 countries, who will focus on bolstering and supporting the Lebanese army.
The military is seen as the guardian of the country’s unity and stability, as well as a crucial pillar for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
“We can’t expect the troops to do their job south of the Litani in accordance with this resolution when most soldiers are struggling to make ends meet and are taking on side jobs,” said a diplomatic source. “Significant financial support is needed for the army to cover salaries and equipment.”
The conference will open with speeches by Macron and Mikati, followed by a virtual address from the Lebanese Army Commander, Joseph Aoun. Like other Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia — considered a key donor and regional player — will participate, though it will not be represented by its Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan.
The conference will not only discuss military support but also touch upon cease-fire negotiations. “This might be an opportunity for Lebanon to present a clear, unified, and official position during this phase,” the diplomatic source said, expressing hope. Beirut is expected to reaffirm its commitment to the full implementation of Resolution 1701, a stance that Paris also endorses, while Washington and Tel Aviv are pushing for a stronger version of the international measure, deeming it “insufficient.”
