Aerial view of the Pentagon, the U.S. Department of Defense. (Credit: AFP archive photo)
Official documents from the U.S. administration, seemingly detailing preparations for an Israeli attack on Iran, were published Friday on a pro-Iranian Telegram channel, "Middle East Spectator."
The same day, U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters in Berlin that he knew how and when the Israeli state would respond to the ballistic missile attack launched by Iran on Israeli territory on Oct 1, but refused to elaborate.
The source of the leak of the two documents — which were still available on Saturday, L'Orient-Le Jour confirmed — was attributed by Haaretz to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NIMSAT), part of the U.S. Department of Defense, which specializes in advanced technologies. According to CNN, the documents originate from the agency and also the National Security Agency (NSA).
The message accompanying the documents claimed they were "leaked" by a "source within a U.S. intelligence agency" and show the results of surveillance operations on Israel's preparations to respond to the Iranian attack. The "Middle East Spectator" channel describes itself as "pro-Iran, pro-Palestine, anti-woke, and anti-imperialist" and is reportedly based in Iran, according to its associated X (formerly Twitter) account.
'Top Secret' documents
According to CNN, the documents are "top secret," with markers indicating they are intended only for the U.S. and its "Five Eyes" allies, which include Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. A source for the American network confirmed the authenticity of the documents. When contacted by Axios — the first to report the leak — the Pentagon and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment but did not dispute the documents' authenticity.
Washington reportedly apologized to Tel Aviv for the leak, according to Haaretz, citing an Israeli source. The revelation of these reports could disrupt Israel's response to Iran, as the leaked pages reveal some of the measures Israel has taken in preparing its attack, including the movement of ammunition.
The documents, classified as "top secret," discuss intelligence gathered on Oct. 15 and 16. One report observed that the Israeli Air Force has been handling aerobalistic missiles (ballistic missiles launched from aircraft) at Hatzerim Air Base since October 8 to arm military aircraft.
The missiles in question include "Golden Horizon," publicly mentioned for the first time, according to Haaretz, and "ROCKS," a missile produced by Israel's Rafael defense technology company. Rafael was recently targeted by Hezbollah fire. These missiles can be launched by F-16 or F-35 fighter jets from a long distance, beyond enemy anti-aircraft defense systems, the newspaper noted.
During those same two days, the documents state, the Israeli Air Force also moved air-to-ground missiles to Ramot David Air Base, east of Haifa, and Ramon Air Base, located in the Negev Desert. Large-scale air exercises were also conducted in preparation for a potential attack, involving "a large number of aircraft," including fighter jets, with maneuvers for mid-air refueling. One document adds that on Oct. 16, the Israeli military conducted drone operations that "allow for secret surveillance of Iran and the region."
"We cannot accurately predict the scale and scope of a strike on Iran; such a strike could occur without further warning from geospatial intelligence," reads one document. "We have observed no indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon," the report adds.
Security breach and bilateral trust
According to three sources familiar with the matter, cited by CNN, Washington has launched an investigation into the leak, focusing primarily on determining who had access to the documents, which are believed to have originated from the Pentagon.
One senior source described the leak as "very concerning." Any leak of this nature automatically triggers an investigation by the FBI, the Pentagon, and U.S. intelligence agencies, according to the network. The incident, which could reveal a significant security breach within the U.S. intelligence community, is being taken very seriously by Washington.
Already strained under Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right government, due to his judicial reform plans and the conduct of the war in Gaza and Lebanon, the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Israel may also suffer.
"The report, if accurate, suggests close and detailed surveillance of Israel's preparations for an attack on Iran by U.S. intelligence services, including through the use of satellites to spy on operations conducted at Israeli air force bases," Axios noted.
Such measures between allies can cause friction. Haaretz also reported that the leaked information revealed that warplanes had been moved to fortified underground bunkers at Hatzerim Air Base, potentially making them vulnerable to attack.
It is not yet clear whether the documents were hacked or leaked from the inside, as claimed by the "Middle East Spectator" Telegram channel. Iranians have intensified cyberattacks on the U.S. ahead of the presidential election, which will see Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris face off against former Republican President Donald Trump, whom Tehran does not wish to see return to the White House.
While the aim behind revealing the documents may have been to disrupt Israeli plans to attack Iran or create tension between Israel and the U.S., an American official told Axios he did not believe it would "influence Israel's operational plans against Iran."
Haaretz also noted that this is not the first time classified documents on Israel have leaked from U.S. intelligence agencies.
"The leak of these documents is bad, certainly, but not terrible either. The problem is if there are more," an American official warned CNN.
