Socialist Zohran Mamdani clear favorite to win New York City mayoral elections

New York will elect its new mayor Tuesday, with polling favorite Zohran Mamdani — a 34-year-old Muslim of Indian descent from the left wing of the Democratic Party and a staunch opponent of Donald Trump — leading the race.

The U.S. president has regularly weighed in on the campaign, and on Monday night urged voters to support Mamdani's main rival, former governor of the state Andrew Cuomo.

"Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him and hope that he does a fantastic job. He is capable; Mamdani is not!," Trump wrote Monday night on his Truth Social network.

"If communist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the election to become mayor of New York, it is very unlikely that I will contribute federal funds, except for the bare minimum required," Trump warned.

Polling stations open at 6 a.m. (11 a.m. GMT) and close at 9 p.m. (2 a.m. GMT Wednesday). Lincoln Mitchell, professor at Columbia University, expects high turnout for this "highly contested" election.

For months, polls have given the advantage to Mamdani, recently showing him 4.5 to 16 points ahead of Cuomo who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary.

The third candidate, Republican Curtis Sliwa, has steadfastly refused to withdraw in favor of Cuomo, whose pro-business and tough-on-crime positions are close to his own.

About 735,300 voters cast early ballots , four times more than in the last municipal election in 2021, which saw a total turnout of 1.15 million people (a participation rate of 23.3 percent).

Early voting, a recent option in New York, is attracting new voters but "can also be a sign of strong enthusiasm for a candidate or concerns about the outcome," notes John Kane of New York University.

The election of the city's 111th mayor, who will take office Jan. 1, is engaging the more than five million voters in America's largest city, over 60 percent of whom are Democrats.

Political foes

Mamdani's proposals (rent controls, free buses and day-care centers) are more in line with social democratic principles.

While the Republican president has deployed the military in several Democratic strongholds (Portland, Chicago, Washington, Memphis and Los Angeles), Mamdani has promised to "fiercely" oppose his anti-immigration policy and his legal war against his "political enemies."

Elon Musk also called for a vote for Cuomo rather than "Mumdumi or whatever his name is," on X on Monday.

Within Mamdani's own party, the candidate is not unanimously supported. Several top figures, such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New Yorker, have not publicly endorsed him, and those who have did so cautiously.

While he eventually declared his support for Mamdani, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries does not believe he is "the future" of their party, despite the excitement he has generated in New York.

Experts interviewed by AFP agree, noting the particular nature of New York political life compared to the rest of the country.

Obama praise

Former Democratic president Barack Obama, for his part, "praised the campaign" of the young socialist during a phone call Saturday, according to the New York Times. Like Mamdani himself, he condemned "Islamophobic" attacks from some Cuomo supporters.

Neighboring New Jersey is also choosing its next governor, between Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat considered more moderate, Mikie Sherrill.

The state has been considered a Democratic stronghold over the past decade, but in the last presidential race, Donald Trump significantly narrowed the gap.

Virginia, meanwhile, will elect its first female governor. Polls show a lead for Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, a former Marine. But there too, the margin and turnout will be closely watched.

On the other side of the country, Californians are voting on whether to authorize redistricting that would favor the Democratic Party, in response to a similar Trump-backed initiative in Texas.