A fighter affiliated with the new Syrian administration uses a bayonet on a portrait of the ousted president Bashar al-Assad, in the former military prison of Mazzeh in Damascus, on Jan. 2, 2025. (Credit: Anwar Amro/AFP)
Calls for calm were heard from the very first moments. Just a few days after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, the new prime minister of the transitional government, Mohammad al-Bashir, called on Syrians from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus to seek justice without revenge.
However, for more than three weeks now, reports of sporadic abuses attributed to elements of the former regime or rebel groups have been multiplying. While sometimes exaggerated or manipulated by figures loyal to the deposed president to create discord within the population, these reports highlight the challenge for the new forces in power to restore order in a divided Syria.
Following the fire, shortly before Christmas, of a Christmas tree in Souqaylabiya, near Hama, by rebels belonging to the jihadist group Ansar al-Tawhid, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the leaders of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) sent a representative there, assuring residents that the perpetrators of the attack would be pursued.
40,000 to 80,000 Men
According to the SOHR on Dec. 29, more than 50 murders "have surfaced and spread, sparking fear among civilians" since the overthrow of the old authorities. The increase of vengeance acts on both sides and the presence of resistance pockets seem to have forced the new forces in power to crack down.
Barely 48 hours after New Year's Eve celebrations, state media announced on Thursday that Syrian security forces under HTS authority were conducting a large-scale sweep in two Alawite neighborhoods of Homs, the minority from which former President Bashar al-Assad hailed. The goal: To hunt down "war criminals and individuals involved in crimes who refused to lay down their arms," according to the official SANA news agency, and to seize "hidden ammunition and weapons."
Even though since mid-December the transitional government has ordered soldiers and police under the former regime to register with the new authorities and surrender their weapons, many have reportedly defied the call.
"According to a military source from HTS, about 50,000 weapons have been handed over to date and another 100,000 are thought to still be in the hands of army and security institution elements," said Qussai Jukhadar, a Syrian human rights researcher and advocate. "The biggest challenge for the transitional government is dismantling the former regime, that is, Assad's army and the security services affiliated with it."
These defiances are particularly observed in provinces marked by a strong Alawite community presence, like Homs and Hama, not to mention Tartous and Latakia, the Assad stronghold.
"The Assad regime loyalists were used to not being held accountable and still struggle to recognize the new reality in Syria," explained Fadil Hanci, an associate researcher at the Omran Center.
"HTS has tried to manage the issue by organizing local settlements, arresting former shabiha when possible, and projecting its power on the streets to discourage organized acts of violence. But the problem will not be resolved soon. HTC has been primarily focused on establishing a security order in Damascus, which reduced its capacity to send reinforcements to other provinces due to its limited security forces."
While the exact number of its forces is unclear, the group currently relies on local recruitment to assert its authority and expand its ranks, which have also been occupied for years by foreign fighters.
"HTS commanders have recently claimed to have 40,000 to 80,000 men, but these figures should be taken with caution," stated Broderick McDonald, an associate researcher at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) at King's College, highlighting that the organization might have inflated these estimates to project its strength. "What is clear is that HTS is the largest and most powerful armed group in Syria. Since the launch of the offensive that toppled Assad, the organization has reopened its recruitment campaigns in local communities and continues to recruit new members."
Multitude of Challenges
Faced with persistent resistance, HTS seems to rely on a dual strategy.
"The instructions given by HTS leaders to its fighters seem to recommend discipline and not overstepping orders, particularly towards civilians, especially in mixed environments," said Jukhadar. "However, there are transgressions. While some are individual, others are intended to send a message from HTS."
This was exemplified by the fate of Shujaa al-Ali, a notorious shabiha of the former regime, killed on the evening of Dec. 26 in the Homs countryside after clashes with Syrian military forces members. Shortly before his death, the gang leader – accused, among other things, of participating in the Houla massacre in which a hundred people, including 49 children, were killed in 2012 – threatened in a video to burn mosques and attack the inhabitants of the eponymous city located in the north of the Homs countryside. According to Syria TV, his body has since been transported there as a show of force, while the victims and witnesses of his crimes welcomed his fate. On the other hand, the HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa said on Dec. 11 that Syrian officials involved in the torture of detainees under Bashar al-Assad's rule would not be pardoned.
Besides the necessity of preventing a wave of sectarian vengeance and satisfying various minority communities to maintain order, HTS must deal with a multitude of challenges, including integrating Kurdish forces into the future army, implementing a de-escalation between them and pro-Turkish auxiliaries, or ensuring that the security vacuum in eastern Syria does not benefit the restructuring of the jihadist organization Islamic State. Additionally, HTS needs to "find a balance between its efforts to expand the organization and seeking international legitimacy while containing hardline supporters and foreign fighters within its ranks," stated McDonald.
Priorities on the ground that will need to be accompanied by political considerations, observers warn, as HTS leader al-Sharaa recently announced the holding of a national dialogue conference scheduled for January.
"In general, this dialogue will be able to shelter Syria, provided that all components of the Syrian people are well represented, without exclusion," said Jukhadar.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.