Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on Zibqin in southern Lebanon on Aug. 25, 2024. (Credit: Kawnat Haju/AFP)
BEIRUT — On Sunday, Hezbollah finally retaliated to the killing of its military leader Fouad Shukur directly after "preemptive" Israeli strikes that targeted many villages in southern Lebanon.
On July 30, Israel carried out an airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, killing Shukur, three women and two children, and injuring at least 80. This attack was in response to the killing of 12 children in the village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights. Israel attributed this strike to Hezbollah, which the latter strongly denied.
Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in near-daily cross-border attacks along the Lebanese-Israeli border since October in parallel with the Israel's war on Gaza.
Hezbollah's retaliation
According to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the party's main target in Sunday's operation was the Israeli Glilot base, where the Unit 8200 of the Israeli army is located, and which is "110 kilometers from the Lebanese border and 1,500 meters from Tel Aviv."
Unit 8200 is the the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate's largest and primary information gathering unit, according to the Israeli army's official website. The unit operates in all zones and in wartime, the website explains, the unit's members join combat field headquarters "in order to enable a faster flow of information."
Nasrallah also said that the second target was an airbase and missile defense site located 75 kilometers from Lebanon and 40 kilometers from Tel Aviv. It it not yet clear whether the party succeeded in hitting these bases or whether Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted the projectiles.
Reacting to Hezbollah's operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli army "intercepted all the drones launched by Hezbollah toward a strategic target in the center of the country."
Hezbollah started the attack by launching 320 Katyusha rockets on eleven different Israeli positions: The Meron barracks (which is the air traffic control headquarters in the north and has been targeted numerous times since October); a position in Neve Ziv; the Ga'aton base; a position in Za'oura; the Sahal base; the Kilaa barracks; four barracks in the occupied Syrian Golan (Kilaa, Yoav, Nafah and Yarden), the Ain Zetim base and the Ramot Naftali base.
These rockets served to "flood the interception missile system and open a space for the drones to go through and hit the desired targets," according to military expert and former war journalist Elijah Magnier.
Prior to the attack, some analysts said that Hezbollah might use precision missiles to target the Israeli cities of Haifa or Tel Aviv, something the party ultimately decided not to do.
According to Magnier, the reason Hezbollah used drones rather than precision missiles, was because it still wants to avoid a full-scale war. The use of these missiles might lead to a heavy Israeli retaliation which would increase the risk of war.
"The fact that Hezbollah did not use these precision missiles is an intelligent move," Magnier said. "Hezbollah is telling Israel that it does not want to show all the weapons it has unless Israel decides to go to an all out of war and in such as a case the party would have no red lines."
Commenting on Hezbollah's retaliation, military expert Riyad Kahwaji said that there is no proof so far that Hezbollah targeted a base near Tel Aviv," adding that "Hezbollah stuck to its self-established rules of engagement by keeping the targets within the usual depth — not exceeding 20 kilometers.'
"The Israeli Iron Dome shot down most of the projectiles and the Israeli Air Force intercepted some of the drones," he added.
What about the 'preemptive' Israeli airstrike that preceded Hezbollah's attack?
On Sunday morning, before Hezbollah's attack, Israel conducted heavy raids on southern Lebanese villages throughout the night and into the morning, which it described as "preventive."
Magnier strongly doubts that these Israeli strikes were indeed "preventive," as claimed by Israel.
"This so-called preemptive Israeli strike against southern Lebanon is doubtful because Hezbollah's attack came after the preemptive strike which means that the attack was scheduled and took place anyway," Magnier said, adding that the "preemptive strike" is also doubtful considering that it did not "reach its objective" or stopping Hezbollah's planned retaliation.
Kahwaji pointed to the lack of evidence either way, saying "We do not know what Israel targeted and how much damage it did as there is no visual proof."
The Israeli army earlier said on Sunday that it attacked thousands of rocket launchers in Lebanon with more than a hundred fighter jets.
"This is an exaggerated number, it is more like dozens of rocket launches, which is still significant if true," Kahwaji said.
Reacting to the Israeli army statement, Magnier said: "How is it possible to destroy this many bombs, which were ready to be launched, and kill no one? It is impossible. Where is the unit responsible for launching these missiles? It just doesn't fit."
According to Fox News, the Israeli army struck launch sites in Lebanon "just minutes before Hezbollah was planning to fire thousands of rockets into central Israel."
It remains unclear whether Hezbollah's attack would have been stronger if Israel did not launch these "preemptive strikes."
Through its attack, Hezbollah aimed to reestablish deterrence following Israel's strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut. Nasrallah said in his Sunday speech that the party had to respond in order to "maintain the deterrence equation."
However, it is still not clear whether this attack will be enough to deter Israel from carrying out further operations similar to the attack that killed Shukur in the future.