Le 4 juin 2024, des tirs ont balayé des dossiers ciblés par l'artillerie israélienne à la périphérie du village de Rmeish, au sud du Liban, dans le cadre des affrontements transfrontaliers entre les troupes israéliennes et les combattants du Hezbollah. (Credit: Kawnat Haju/AFP)
Clashes between the Israeli army and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon have intensified in recent days, raising fears of a potential nationwide escalation of the conflict. This escalation is also in tandem with influential Israeli officials calling on their government to launch an intensified military operation to push Hezbollah away from Israel's northern border. To retaliate with their own threats, Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Kassem, stated on Tuesday evening that "if Israel wants to wage a full-scale war, we are ready."
These confrontations have caused a constant worry between both camps and have also pushed for many to share their analyses on the topic. Joel D. Parker, a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, expressed his concern in Haaretz, calling an Israeli offensive in Lebanon a "disastrous mistake." Similarly, Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg, interviewed by Arab News, believes that "Israel cannot afford a war on two fronts."
Parker believes that Israel has mismanaged public communication, diplomacy, and humanitarian aid during the eight months of war in Gaza, hindering its military objectives.
"Israel must convince its allies that a ceasefire with Hezbollah is the ultimate goal, » he asserts, « Its objectives must be realistic, not like the goal of completely eradicating Hamas from Gaza."
A war in Lebanon without respect for humanitarian rights, like in Gaza, would lead to negative global public opinion, and likely censure from the UN, according to Parker. Moreover, the United States would not support such an offensive, since, on Wednesday, Washington warned against an "escalation" in Lebanon, noting that it would endanger Israel's security.
Parker proposed alternatives, such as "forcing Hezbollah into significant disarmament," instead of total eradication. A goal that he believes could be supported by the Lebanese state. Conversely, Goldberg, suggested that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presents the war in Lebanon as the only viable option to allow displaced Israelis to return home, "it is very likely that he could rally enough support."
On Tuesday, Tal Beeri, director of research at the Alma Center, described to the Jerusalem Post what a full-scale war in the north Israel would entail. "In the event of a full-scale war, the Israeli front would experience an unprecedented volume of fire, even compared to 2006," according to Beeri.
"In fact, Hezbollah's firepower can target the entire territory of the state of Israel," he explains. According to Beeri’s estimations, Hezbollah would be able to send several thousand drones and missiles each day toward Israel.
Before the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, Hezbollah wanted a war with Israel and planned to invade Galilee, but Hamas acted first, Beeri theorized.
"Oct. 7 only froze Hezbollah's plans; it did not cancel them," he asserted.
In Lebanon, Michael Young, editor-in-chief of Diwan, a publication of Carnegie Middle East, told Arab News that Hezbollah does not want a full-scale war with Israel.
"If there is a war, I do not think there will be support from a large part of Lebanese society, and Hezbollah knows this," he explained.
This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.