This grab taken from handout video footage released by the IRINN Iranian state television network on May 19, 2024 shows Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi on board a helicopter in the Jolfa region of the western province of East Azerbaijan. (AFP)
Iran's President Embrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian have been killed in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran - state media are reporting.
The facts:
• Iranian state TV announced his death on Monday. Yesterday official media in Iran reported that the presidential helicopter had a "hard landing" as President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were on their way back from a visit to a dam in Iran's East Azerbaijan province. They were part of an aerial convoy of three helicopters.
• Drone footage, shared on Iranian state news agency IRNA's social media channels, appears to show the wreckage of President Raisi's helicopter. The tail of a helicopter lays next to a large patch of scorched earth on a wooded hillside, with a trail of debris next to it. Rescuers have said there is no sign of life at the site.
• The accident occurred in a mountainous region that is difficult to access and poorly connected to the telecommunications network. The rescue operations were complicated by weather conditions, with Iranian media reporting fog and rain.
• Among the passengers were the governor of East Azerbaijan province, Malek Rahmati, and the Supreme Leader's representative in the region, Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, according to Al Jazeera.
The context:
• Hardline supporters of the regime have called on Iranians to pray for Ebrahim Raisi, who is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and was considered by many as a potential successor to the 85-year-old leader.
• Earlier on Sunday, the Iranian president had met with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, to inaugurate a dam in the border region. Baku is a major ally of Israel, which supplies it with most of its weapons in exchange for gas and access to neighboring Iran, according to some analysts.
• Despite the difficult weather conditions, many have raised the question of possible external involvement in the accident, especially as the war in Gaza is in its eighth month and the "Axis of Resistance" led by Tehran remains active on various fronts. State television reported on Sunday evening that the accident was due to poor weather conditions.
• On April 13, the Islamic Republic launched a direct attack on Israel for the first time, in response to a strike attributed to Israel on its consular annex in Damascus. This unprecedented offensive involved more than 300 projectiles, including ballistic and cruise missiles. Israel responded a few days later, striking near a nuclear site in the vicinity of Isfahan.
Raisi's presidency:
• Elected in 2021, Ebrahim Raisi represented the hardline faction of the regime.
• Raisi was the number two to Ayatollah Khamenei, however the latter is the commander in chief and makes all the main decisions.
• Raisi was the subject of a lawsuit in Switzerland for crimes against humanity due to his alleged role as judge in the mass execution of dissidents in 1988.
• Under his presidency, the crackdown on the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, which was organized in September 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, resulted in the killed of around 500 protesters, according to human rights organizations.
The stakes:
• Ebrahim Raisi was seen as a potential successor to the Supreme Leader, along with the latter's son.
• The decision on who will take the Supreme Leader's place is theoretically left to the Assembly of Experts. They were re-elected last March and represent a very conservative line, as former President Hassan Rouhani was prevented from running for re-election to this body.
• The death of the head of state would raise the possibility of a new presidential election — the vice president would serve as interim president until a new election is organized within 50 days.
• Following tense relations between the two neighbors, Azerbaijan and Iran had initiated measures hinting at a pragmatic rapprochement in recent months. The war in Nagorno-Karabakh last September led Baku to reclaim the predominantly Armenian territory that has since been emptied of its inhabitants. Tehran could reverse these détente measures if it turns out that the helicopter accident was actually a premeditated operation with any involvement from Azerbaijan.
• Questions will also be raised regarding the ongoing indirect talks between Iran and the United States aimed at preventing a regional escalation in the face of the war in Gaza.
• Questions will also arise regarding Iran's nuclear program. Recently, Iran indicated through one of the Supreme Leader's advisors that the country may reconsider its nuclear doctrine — which is officially for civilian purposes — if the Islamic Republic faces an "existential risk."