Residents stand in front of a house destroyed by an Israeli strike that killed four members of the same family, in Mais al-Jabal, south Lebanon, May 5, 2024. (Credit: AFP)
After a few relatively quiet days, the clashes between Israel and Hezbollah intensified again this week.
These fluctuations cannot be dissociated from the Gaza cease-fire talks, but also from the US-Iran negotiations to prevent a regional conflagration. All of that comes against the backdrop of a clear Iran-Hezbollah decision not to engage in an all-out war against Israel from Lebanon, as Hamas has done from Gaza.
Resuming cease-fire negotiations in Gaza was accompanied by a decline in military operations in southern Lebanon.
However, as negative signs on the possibility of reaching an agreement emerged Saturday evening, Hezbollah once again flexed its muscles. It fired missiles at Israeli positions, while Tel Aviv retaliated with a strike that killed four civilians from the same family in Mais al-Jabal.
Since then, clashes have been escalating, with Israel striking twice deep into Lebanese territory on Monday. In response, Hezbollah attacked with booby-trapped drones, killing two soldiers.
On Tuesday, the Shiite militia repeated the attack, carrying out two similar strikes against military positions in northern Israel. Israel retaliated by shelling several villages in south Lebanon.
So far, however, the two sides still seem willing to keep these clashes as part of the established rules of engagement, and not head toward a wider battle.
Houthis rather than Hezbollah
On the Lebanese side, there are fears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would seek to prolong the fighting, will sabotage any agreement on Gaza and insist on fighting in the overcrowded city of Rafah, south of the Palestinian enclave.
Despite Hamas’ consent on Monday to the cease-fire proposal that the Qataris and Egyptians put forward, Netanyahu said that his country could not consent to the deal and conducted a series of attacks on Rafah in parallel.
“Once this operation is over, he could turn his full attention to Lebanon and expand the war, especially as he has repeatedly stated that he is ready to operate on several fronts,” said an official Lebanese source.
The Israeli army continues to conduct drills simulating a war with Lebanon. Last week, in a meeting with his French counterpart Stéphane Séjourné, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz stressed his country’s determination to carry out a vast military operation against Hezbollah, and even to “occupy parts of south Lebanon” if the Shiite party does not withdraw from the border area.
Despite this, Hezbollah continues to rule out the possibility of all-out war. All the more so since an important regional development occurred a few days ago when the Leader of the Houthi rebels in Yemen Abdel Malek al-Houthi said that he was moving on to the fourth stage of confrontation with the Israelis and Americans.
He now threatens to target ships heading for Israel in the Mediterranean Sea, not just the Red Sea. These threats are an important development in operations, especially as the Americans do not want to disrupt stability or shipping in the Mediterranean.
Washington and Tel Aviv emphasize investing in gas from Israeli fields in the Mediterranean and the lucrative transportation of this gas to Europe.
The Houthis’ statement confirmed once again that Hezbollah does not want to widen the war to the Lebanese front. It would be capable not only of striking targets in the Mediterranean if it so wished, but above all of targeting the gas drilling and extraction platforms in Israeli fields, such as Karish or Tamar, which it has often threatened to do.
In his latest speech, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah made it clear that he did not want Israel to continue exploiting gas as if nothing had happened, while Lebanon remains, in his view, incapable of investing in its own resources.
“Nasrallah wanted to raise the stakes by insisting on the importance for Lebanon of investing in oil and gas,” said a source close to the party.
However, according to another interpretation, Nasrallah wanted to send a message to the Israelis by threatening that, in the event of escalation, he would be ready to target their strategic objectives in the Mediterranean.
US-Iran tête-à-tête in Oman
These developments cannot be dissociated from the US-Iran negotiations. L’Orient-Le Jour learned from diplomatic sources that a direct meeting took place last week between representatives of the two countries in Oman. Discussions focused on how to avoid regional escalation.
“The Iranians stressed that the key to appeasement lies in halting the war in Gaza and that only the US can force the Israelis to do so,” said a Western diplomatic source.
The Iranians also stressed the importance of returning to verbal agreements with the Americans on the nuclear issue, according to the same sources.
“Negotiations between Iran and the US are continuing both directly and indirectly. In addition to meetings in Oman, others are being held in New York,” said the diplomat.
These bilateral negotiations were marked by a US insistence that Iran slow down its uranium enrichment and cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency by facilitating the inspection of facilities, while Iran demanded that the US roll back certain sanctions.
Clearly, for Iran, these direct negotiations are intended to pave the way for a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement and to facilitate the re-election of President Joe Biden to avoid Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Iranian sources said Tehran does not want to conclude a nuclear deal in the run-up to the US presidential election, to prevent a repetition of the 2018 scenario, when then newly-elected Trump announced his country’s withdrawal from the Vienna agreement that his predecessor Barack Obama reached.
Hence, for the Iranians, it’s best to revive the agreement after the re-election of Biden for a second term. In the meantime, they are preparing the ground for this. But if Trump wins, negotiations will take a different course.
‘Hezbollah will not be alone’
However, the talks between the two sides were not limited to the nuclear dossier. They also covered all regional developments, particularly in the Red Sea and south Lebanon.
In this vein, the US urged Iran to put an end to the Houthi attacks, to pressure Hezbollah to cease its attacks on Israel and accept a diplomatic agreement independently of the war in Gaza. The US also urged Iran to push Hamas to take positions in favor of a humanitarian truce and hostage release. The Iranians, for their part, asked the Americans to pressure Israel to stop the war.
As for the Lebanese dossier, the Iranians conveyed a message to the Israelis through their US interlocutors, warning them against any expansion of military operations against Hezbollah.
“They warned that any escalation could lead to a regional confrontation in which Hezbollah will not be alone and that they will not stand idly by,” said a diplomatic source.
The Iranian message also included a warning about its Shiite protégé’s military capabilities and its ability to inflict heavy losses on Israel and cause Israel direct and strategic damage.
The meeting in Oman did not produce any clear results. Each side is expected to study the conditions and offers made. Pending the next reunion, the situation on the ground will do the talking.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.