‘In the short term, the strikes against the Houthis are exacerbating tensions’

The United States and Great Britain conducted yet another operation against the Houthis in Yemen, marking the fifth attack in less than a week — the first took place on Jan. 12.

According to US and UK officials, these strikes are a response to weeks of attacks carried out by the Iran-allied rebel group, on oil tankers and merchant ships in the Red Sea, in “solidarity” with Hamas amid the war in Gaza.

Seeking to secure the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which handles around 12 percent of international maritime traffic, US President Joe Biden assured Thursday that the strikes would continue.

In an interview with the Russian daily Izvestia, the Houthis stated that “none of their [Israel’s] ships will be able to cross one of the world’s main trade routes.”

Despite ongoing Western strikes, the Houthi rebels continue their maritime attacks and claim that other nations, like China and Russia, will be exempt.

On Jan. 17, the US once again labeled the Houthis a “terrorist entity.”

The question remains: will US strikes in Yemen contribute to restoring Red Sea maritime stability? Nicholas Brumfield, a Yemen expert and researcher at Tesla Government Inc, a private American organization, provides insights.

Q- What were the successive stages that led to the current situation in the Red Sea?

A- The current situation in the Red Sea has evolved through successive stages, closely tied to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Initially, during the onset of the war, the Houthis attempted to launch drones against Israel, without much success.

However, a significant shift occurred from mid-November onward when they started targeting merchant ships in the Red Sea, using capabilities that have proven to be substantial in recent years.

They indeed managed to hijack a ship in a spectacular fashion — an operation that they filmed — but none of their attacks, which were limited to the western Red Sea, resulted in injuries or significant damage. These attacks, however, unsurprisingly prompted many shipping companies to avoid this route.

On Dec. 18, the US launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, a coalition of a dozen countries (with a further 10 or so participating anonymously) to guarantee the safety of fleets in the Red Sea.

The Houthi attacks continued despite American warnings.

On Dec. 31, things escalated when a Houthi group attempted to board a ship and was intercepted by US troops. The two sides exchanged fire, which resulted in 10 people dead in the Houthi ranks.

This was a turning point for the Houthis.

Their response came on Jan. 9, when they launched their most lethal attack ever, with 31 missiles and drones against US warships. The operation, however, did not have a major impact and the missiles were intercepted.

I believe that up until then, the Houthis had no intention of hitting an American ship. But this was another turning point, with Washington declaring that further attacks would no longer be tolerated.

Personally, I would have preferred them to have absorbed the [US] attack, because there might have been a de-escalation.

Finally, the last turning point so far came with the American-British strikes that began on Jan.11, mainly targeting Houthi military infrastructures in Yemen, with the aim of dismantling their military arsenal and missile capability.

Q- Have these international actions against the Houthis helped to protect international traffic or, on the contrary, increased the risks?

A- In the short term, these strikes are exacerbating the situation. The US understood this, as it is warning ships not to use this sea route.

The Houthis, for their part, have widened the geographical area of their operations, carrying out attacks in the Gulf of Aden for the first time. And they no longer say that they would attack only vessels with links to Israel, as they did at the start.

The consequences for maritime traffic were felt from the very first attacks, with many major companies suspending their operations.

By December, according to my calculations, 60 percent of the market had been affected, which is a significant number of ships. Many companies now prefer to turn away from the region because of the volatile situation.

Some analysts also underscore how much time it would take to actually undermine Houthi capabilities.

The group has had many years to develop its infrastructure in northern Yemen with the help of Iran. I am skeptical about the US' ability to prevent them from controlling a vast territory and completely destroying their capabilities.

Even if [the US] destroyed all their missile launchpads, the group would still have other ways of hindering maritime traffic, from drones to naval mines or even sending armed troops to intercept ships.

And even if their attacks have not caused any significant damage so far, the Houthis have made their presence felt, scaring off shipowners who have, in turn, increased their rates on the market.

Q- Can an international coalition in the Red Sea prove efficient in preventing the transfer of arms from Iran to the Houthis?

A- The issue of arms transfers from Iran to the Houthis has been a cause for concern for several years now, in the context of the armed conflict in Yemen.

It is plausible that the Houthis have gone into this confrontation with Western forces with a relatively large stockpile of weapons, given the truce they have been observing in the country for the last 20 months or so.

The US, however, has recently seized a vessel carrying weapons, including sophisticated missiles, off the coast of Somalia.

This is the most impressive seizure since 2019.

Up until now, the US has come across loads of light weapons only. It is not out of the question for the US to make larger seizures from now on, given the resources deployed for this purpose.

But it is unlikely that the international community will be able to intercept all the weapons sent by Iran, which can use multiple channels to get them to the Houthis, not only by sea smuggling, or via Somalia through the Gulf of Aden, but also via Oman.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.