A supporter holds up a picture of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at a pro-Hezbollah rally in the southern Beirut suburbs, Oct. 8, 2023. (Credit: João Sousa/L'Orient Today)
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BEIRUT — Israeli forces fired 10 flares over Mays al-Jabal, in southern Lebanon, early Tuesday morning, according to the pro-Hezbollah al-Manar television channel – they followed dozens of rockets and mortars exchanged from both sides of the border Monday, raising fears Lebanon could be pulled into another war. Sor far, at least three Hezbollah fighters have been killed in the exchange, the group announced.
Washington warned on Monday that Hezbollah should not make "the wrong decision" by opening a second front against Israel on the border with Lebanon.
Clashes and tensions between Lebanon and Israel have been ongoing along the southern border after Hamas fighters from Gaza executed operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” against Israeli-controlled territory on Saturday.
L’Orient Today talked to two political experts to understand what the coming few days could mean for Lebanon.
What should be expected in Lebanon in the next few days as the conflict likely intensifies between Israel and Hamas?
Imad Salamey, an associate professor of Middle Eastern political affairs at the Lebanese American University, told L'Orient Today that it’s expected that “the tension along the border will remain high in the next phase as both sides [Lebanon and Israel] will remain on high alert, and we should expect to see cross-border fire exchange.”
“However, the crossfire will also remain within bounds and without major escalation,” he added.
Supporters wave Palestinian and Hezbollah flags at a pro-Hezbollah rally in the southern Beirut suburbs, Oct. 8, 2023. (Credit: João Sousa/L'Orient Today)
Will Hezbollah open a new front from Lebanon against Israel?
“As of now it’s unlikely,” Salamey said.
“Hezbollah wants to keep focus and attention on Hamas and bring about major disputes between the Sunni Muslim world and Israel. This will divert attention into an Iranian-Israeli conflict,” he said.
“Even if there is a ground invasion in Gaza, I don’t think Hezbollah will interfere, only if Israel directly attacks Iran will Hezbollah interfere,” he concluded.
However, Mohanad Hage Ali, a researcher at Beirut’s Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, told L’Orient Today that “Hezbollah and Hamas' ‘united front’ strategy means that if one side is under attack the other side will step up to help.”
“If Israel executes a ground invasion, much of Hamas’s infrastructure will be destroyed. If Hamas is defeated, Hezbollah, and Iran will be defeated, so it’s difficult to see Hezbollah being neutral in this war,” Hage Ali said.
What would be the consequences of such a scenario?
“The internal security calculus in Israel is shifting and they are attempting to form a unity government; this could mean unprecedented support for wider engagement in the conflict. Israel has threatened Hamas leaders abroad, and many Hamas officials are now residing in Lebanon,” Hage Ali explained.
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This raises questions over whether Israel would strike Hamas in Lebanon if it decides to engage in a wide-scale attack against Hamas.
“We might see Israel deciding at a later stage when there is enough political endorsement, that they go forward with those strikes,” he said.
“Moreover, the Israel attack against Gaza started with unprecedented European, US and Western support, however, the more Palestinian citizens are injured, the more the support of the war will decrease, specifically from Europe.”
According to Salamey, however, the consequences are domestic.
“We should expect to see more political division among the different Lebanese parties on the question of whether Hezbollah has the right to take Lebanon into a major battle with Israel or whether it should be restrained,” Salamey said.
This will also affect the presidential election, according to Salamey.
“We need to see how the Free Patriotic Movement,” an uneasy ally of Hezbollah, “will react to that.”