Netanyahu faces the frustration of his war cabinet

Will Israel’s war cabinet implode? For more than seven months, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has never been challenged to this extent by the two members of his war cabinet, set up in October to lead the military campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Frustration with the prime minister once expressed in hushed tones has now boiled over.

Benny Gantz, his main political rival and centrist minister without portfolio, publicly gave him from Saturday until June 8 to agree on a strategic post-war “action plan.” Otherwise, he would submit his resignation. This ultimatum came three days after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a member of the ruling Likud party, denounced in a TV address Netanyahu’s lack of vision on the war. He insisted that military action must accompany the establishment of a governing alternative to Hamas in Gaza. He opposed Israeli military rule in Gaza, which the prime minister is considering.

In more ways than one, Netanyahu’s public accusations are unprecedented. Haaretz journalist Anshel Pfeffer wrote, “Gantz and Gallant have now both told the Israeli public that their prime minister is prepared to continue dragging the country deeper and deeper into Gaza without any viable plan for ending the war. They have both hinted heavily that he is doing so for political reasons, under pressure from the far right. Netanyahu's war cabinet has now voted no confidence in him.”

Covering unity and legitimacy

Admittedly, this is not Gantz’s first threat to resign, and it’s uncertain if he’ll follow through. The centrist minister knows that Israelis don’t want elections as long as the war in Gaza continues, while slamming the door may make him look like a traitor to the nation.

“Gantz can leave the administration and the war cabinet, but he can’t overthrow the government on his own,” said Hussein Ibish, a researcher at the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute. “No one can predict what will happen next. But it’s a gamble because Netanyahu needs them and he’s not going to throw them out, no matter what.”

Cornered, Netanyahu might be tempted to get closer to his ultra-nationalist and far-right coalition allies, who give him a majority in Parliament. Even if the war cabinet collapses, Netanyahu would continue to govern alongside these controversial partners. Officially, he used his usual defense reply, accusing the two former chiefs of staff of breaking the nation’s unity in times of war. Netanyahu lambasted Gantz for choosing “to place ultimatums for the prime minister rather than Hamas.” But as Netanyahu knows, the cover of national unity and legitimacy that Gantz and Gallant provide is more essential than ever to him, when pressure is mounting at home and abroad over his conduct of the war.

Arrest warrant

At home, Netanyahu is facing growing discontent from a part of the population, who once again took to the streets in large numbers on Monday, staging a “day of disruption” calling for the release of hostages in Gaza in exchange for a cease-fire.

While an Israel-Hamas truce seemed close in early May ( Hamast had informed the Qatari and Egyptian mediators in Doha that it agreed to the cease-fire proposal), Israel used minor modifications as a pretext to reject it. In addition, it carried out what it called a “limited” military offensive in Rafah, forcing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to evacuate the city’s eastern neighborhoods.

Another step was taken abroad. On Monday, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) filed arrest warrant applications for war crimes and crimes against humanity against Netanyahu, Gallant and Hamas leaders.

Faced with these developments and the risk of growing isolation, Netanyahu may well make concessions to his partners in the war cabinet, who are keen to get the army and reservists’ families out of the tunnel and to plan politics for the near future. In addition to his responsibility for the failures that led to Oct. 7, Netanyahu has more recently been accused of having encouraged the resurgence of Hamas in Gaza.

In the past few days, Israel bombarded areas that were already “cleared of terrorists,” such as Jabalia and Gaza City — a sign that Israel may believe Hamas has rebuilt its forces in this part of the enclave. According to senior Israeli political and military figures, however, the main reason for this return is Netanyahu’s refusal to draw up a specific post-war plan for Gaza. Criticism is increasingly putting pressure on Netanyahu to have him think about the day after, in line with Washington’s position.

US election

For several months now, the US has been pushing for the establishment of a “reformed” PA in Gaza and the West Bank. In the eyes of the Biden administration, criticized for its unconditional support for Israel, the stakes are high in the run-up to the presidential election. Recently, Biden stepped up his appeasement gestures. On Sunday, he told students of Morehouse College, the Atlanta university where Martin Luther King studied, that he supports “nonviolent protests” for Gaza. His remarks came ahead of a TV debate on June 27 between Biden and his rival Donald Trump.

Netanyahu, who hopes to see the Republican candidate returning to the White House, is playing for time. Guided above all by his interest in securing his survival, he thus rejects the need for a clear strategy until Hamas is dismantled in Gaza to postpone the reckoning.

Middle East Eye quoted unnamed US officials as saying that the US is currently deploying efforts to track down Hamas Leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar, suspected of having fled the Palestinian enclave to Egypt, Lebanon or Syria. Capturing him would be intended to help Israel declare a “total victory” so that it can end the war in Gaza.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.