Fleeing Rafah, but where to?

Over the past four months, the town of Rafah, situated along the border with Egypt, has gradually emerged as a refuge for the vast majority of Gazans fleeing Israeli bombardment. More than half of the coastal enclave’s population, totaling 1.3 million according to the UN, is now crammed into this area, marking a fivefold increase from before the war.

All attention is currently fixed on this southern town of the Gaza Strip, as displaced Palestinians continue to stream in from Khan Younes amidst apprehension of an impending ground offensive. This situation is a source of concern for Palestinians, who find themselves with no safe place to go, and has sparked significant tensions between Israel and its neighbor Egypt, as well as its American ally, which is intensifying pressure on Tel Aviv.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the objective of the offensive announced on Wednesday is to vanquish what he depicted as Hamas’ final bastion in the Gaza Strip.

“Victory is within reach. We’re going to do it. We’re going to get the remaining Hamas terrorist battalions and Rafah, which is the last bastion, but we’re going to do it,” Netanyahu said in an interview with ABC News on Saturday.

These comments come amid increasing international pressure on Israel to change its war tactics.

This follows a previous military operation in Khan Younes, which didn’t achieve the desired “victory” image, noted Khalil Sayegh, a Palestinian analyst.

“The army had hoped to find Sinouar or hostages,” Sayegh said. Israel now claims Rafah as Hamas’ stronghold, a label previously applied to the northern Gaza area and Khan Younes.

This move by Netanyahu could help him gain support internally and ease the anger brewing within the country.

According to an announcement made on Sunday by Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades on Telegram, Israeli airstrikes in the enclave have resulted in the deaths of two hostages in the past 96 hours, with eight others seriously injured.

Meanwhile, family members of Israeli captives demonstrated outside the Knesset in Jerusalem on the same morning to protest the delay in securing a deal for the release of their relatives and family members.

Evacuation of civilians

If Tel Aviv proceeds with its plan to launch an offensive on Rafah, dissatisfaction is likely to grow.

On Sunday, a Hamas senior leader cautioned that any attack on the city would put negotiations regarding the hostages held in Gaza at risk, as reported by the Aqsa television channel cited by Reuters.

Following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement on Wednesday that there was still potential for a ceasefire and a hostage release agreement between the two parties despite the rejection of their respective proposals, new discussions concluded in Cairo two days later involving Qatari, Egyptian, and Hamas representatives.

Moreover, CIA Director Bill Burns is scheduled to meet Israeli and Qatari officials next Tuesday in Cairo, to facilitate the resumption of talks.

“Burns will probably focus on the short-term objective of the timetable and duration of the ceasefire and the release of the hostages,” said Charles Dunne, associate researcher at the Arab Center in Washington. “But it would not be surprising if the much more important question of the offensive on Rafah and the possible forced migration of Gazans to Egypt were among the main subjects discussed.”

Netanyahu instructed his army on Friday to prepare a combined plan for the evacuation of civilians and the “destruction” of Hamas in the town, but these assurances are being met with skepticism.

For several days now, the Biden administration has been expressing concerns about the potential risks of such an operation on residents. According to a senior Biden administration official quoted on Sunday by NBC News, there’s a growing divergence between the US and Israel, particularly regarding a possible offensive in Rafah.

On Thursday, Biden characterized the Israeli “response” to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack as “excessive.”

Netanyahu is reportedly emphasizing the need for civilians to evacuate combat zones, possibly to appease his US supporters.

During his interview on ABC News, Netanyahu suggested that cleared areas north of Rafah could serve as safe havens for residents, although observers question the feasibility of such a plan given the extensive infrastructure damage.

“So far, Netanyahu hasn’t shown any signs of backing down,” said Dunne. “He’s positioning himself as the sole leader capable of resisting the US, which, politically, works in his favor.”

Dunne added that Netanyahu’s opposition to many American demands, such as the two-state solution, is a strategy to garner more domestic support, particularly from the right-wing electorate he aims to regain.

Peace treaty

If Netanyahu’s actions are primarily driven by domestic considerations, he risks finding himself in a precarious position that could provoke the ire of Egypt and other Arab states.

Cairo is apprehensive that the true objective of the offensive in Rafah is to compel Gazans to cross the Sinai border, a scenario it may struggle to manage. The repercussions of Israel’s announcement on relations between the two countries have already been evident.

On Sunday, Egypt issued a warning that it might suspend its peace treaty with Israel — a cornerstone of regional stability since 1979 — if troops were deployed to the southern enclave town, as reported by two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat quoted by the Associated Press. Egyptian authorities also cautioned that the conflict in Rafah could result in the closure of the primary humanitarian aid route in the coastal enclave.

As a sign of Egypt’s concerns, Cairo has purportedly dispatched nearly 40 tanks and armored vehicles to the northeast of Sinai in the past two weeks to bolster security at the Gaza border, as reported by two Egyptian security sources cited by the Times of Israel on Sunday.

“The possibility of persuading Egypt to accommodate hundreds of thousands of Gazans permanently if they were compelled to cross the border, in return for significant debt relief and increased aid, remains uncertain, despite Cairo’s assertions to the contrary,” said Dunne, although various media outlets have been mentioning such a scenario.

Other observers still believe that Egypt will maintain the border closure, despite calls from a significant portion of its population, which is largely sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

“The Egyptians have learned the lesson of 1948 very well — that if the refugees enter, they will not be allowed to return,” said Sayegh. “So, it’s evident that we don’t know where the inhabitants will go, and there is no place in the Gaza Strip ready to accommodate such a large number of people.”

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.