Will the Iran-KSA rapprochement bring solutions to Lebanon and the region?

Despite the volatile military and political crises gripping the region, the diplomatic thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia, brokered last March under the auspices of China, remains intact. Lebanon is intricately intertwined with this dynamic.

Beirut serves as a nexus for communication and convergence between Tehran and Riyadh, facilitating discussions on both internal Lebanese affairs and broader regional issues.

Against this backdrop, a meeting was held a fortnight ago between Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Boukhari and his Iranian counterpart Moujataba Amani. A follow-up meeting is scheduled, as Amani extended an invitation to his Saudi counterpart to convene at the Iranian embassy on Friday.

The objective is to coordinate the efforts between these two regional powers in stabilizing the situation in Lebanon.

Iran seeks to position itself as a contributing party to resolving the crisis, emphasizing the need for a power restructuring.

The Saudi-Iranian dynamic runs alongside the quintet (United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt), which excludes Iran.

However, since the onset of the Israel-Hamas war, Saudi Arabia has advocated for Iran’s involvement in finding a solution for Lebanon as well, aiming for balance rather than one side’s victory.

Nonetheless, many observers believe that the final decision on Lebanon’s issues, including the southern border and the election of a president, rests with the United States and Iran.

This is particularly true as Hezbollah refrains from taking a stance on the presidential issue until the hostilities in the south cease and a ceasefire is reached in the Gaza Strip.

Saudi Arabia will indeed play a significant role, paradoxically being called upon to act as a mediator between Washington and Tehran.

According to L’Orient-Le Jour’s sources, during the Iranian ambassador’s visit to his Saudi counterpart’s residence, all pertinent issues were discussed, including the imperative to reach a consensus for electing a president.

Diplomatic insiders privy to the meeting’s details suggest that following the discussion, the Iranian ambassador also communicated with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, updating him on the ongoing Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.

Simultaneously, well-informed sources reveal discussions between Saudi Arabia and the US in Riyadh, as well as between Washington and Qatar in Doha, to address the Lebanese matter. These talks aim to lay the groundwork for a meeting of the quintet, likely scheduled to convene in Saudi Arabia next week.

This could lead to a declaration issued after the meeting, outlining the qualities sought in the next president. The aim is to address the presidency, separately from the situation in the south, which goes against the expectations of some stakeholders in Lebanon.

KSA’s plan for Gaza

The Iranian-Saudi reconciliation is reverberating across the region, extending beyond Lebanon.

In the aftermath of the Oct. 7 war and Iran’s stance on organized yet disciplined fronts against Israel, particularly from Yemen, Iran has been cautious to mend ties with Saudi Arabia without jeopardizing the kingdom’s security and stability.

Saudi Arabia refrained from joining the US-led coalition in response to the Red Sea escalation, mindful of its potential to disrupt peace negotiations in Yemen and reignite tensions.

There’s a mutual understanding in Saudi Arabia about the necessity to enhance relations with Iran, recognizing Iran’s interest in maintaining positive ties with Riyadh as well.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) does not advocate a return to confrontational dynamics with Iran across various arenas. His strategy, grounded in the exhaustion stemming from political, security, financial and economic strains, now pivots toward agreements and joint economic investments. This shift aims to avert tensions and uphold the security of Saudi Arabia and its neighbors.

“Tehran seeks to assist Riyadh in resolving regional challenges, such as those in Iraq and Gaza,” a senior Arab diplomat told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity. “Iran urged Saudi Arabia to take a leading role in negotiations with Washington on various unresolved issues, including the nuclear dossier,” the source added.

Iran asserts that reaching an agreement with the US on nuclear matters would prompt Tehran to scale back enrichment activities and revert to the 2015 framework, a move intended to reassure Saudi Arabia.

The dialogue between the two former enemies also encompasses the Gaza issue and the future of the Palestinian cause.

The Oct. 7 attack, carried out by Hamas, an ally of Tehran, occurred at a delicate juncture amid the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Practically, the conflict postponed an anticipated agreement. The US, seeking to prevent further escalation in the region, continues its pursuit of an agreement and the normalization process between Arab capitals and Tel Aviv.

After the introduction of the Arab Peace Initiative in Beirut in 2002, the US did not endorse the initiative. However, 22 years later, it has resurfaced with the same equation: The two-state solution in exchange for the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

“Saudi Arabia is poised to unveil a comprehensive plan addressing the Palestinian situation and the conflict in Gaza,” said the Arab diplomat. “The kingdom will also aim to propose, within a broader political framework, a comprehensive solution to the Middle East situation and the Palestinian issue.”

These matters were deliberated during the visits of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk to Saudi Arabia.

According to L’Orient-Le Jour’s sources, the outlines of the Saudi plan emphasize the necessity of restructuring and modernizing the Palestinian leadership, alongside initiatives to restore security in the Gaza Strip and facilitate the withdrawal of the Israeli army.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister stated on Wednesday that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is recognized within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and as long as the “aggression” in Gaza persists.

Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has long advocated for a two-state solution. Furthermore, the Saudi regional approach emphasizes reaffirming the concept of the state, in contrast to the Iranian project, which contributes to destabilizing the region’s countries from within.

The current Saudi strategy, focused on cooperation with Iran, aims to rehabilitate these states by promoting resolutions in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and even Lebanon.

A policy of balance

If Saudi Arabia manages to facilitate closer ties between Tehran and Washington, it could position itself as a crucial partner in resolving all regional crises, thereby preventing the region from falling under Iranian influence.

Washington, too, seeks convergence rather than confrontation with Iran. This was evident in its response to the deaths of three American soldiers in Jordan, where negotiations between the two parties aimed to prevent escalation — an approach closely monitored by Saudi Arabia, with aspirations to assume a leading role.

With this objective in mind, Saudi Arabia aims to pursue a balanced policy in its relations, whether with the US, China, Russia, or any other party, while also maintaining positive relations with Iran.

“Saudi Arabia must play a key role in any solution in the Middle East,” said a Western diplomatic source on condition of anonymity, due to the issue's sensitivity.

Saudi Arabia has a twofold advantage. Firstly, it holds the key to any solution linked to the establishment of a Palestinian state and the granting of Palestinian rights, something that the US cannot ignore.

At the same time, Iran also needs Saudi Arabia to achieve regional detente and increase economic partnerships.

With this in mind, some are not ruling out the possibility of MBS visiting Tehran, in a move that would surprise everyone and change the rules of the game, and the balance of power in the region.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.