A girl holds up a sign showing Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, while others around her wave Palestinian, Lebanese and Hezbollah flags during an anti-Israel rally, Oct. 13, 2023, in Lebanon's southern city of Nabatieh. (Credit: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP)
BEIRUT — In 24 hours, between late Friday and Saturday night, Hezbollah claimed 12 attacks against Israel, including one at an alleged Israeli spy center near the southern Lebanese village of Naqoura. This is in addition to four attacks claimed on Sunday, but at a pace that's more like the one observed in the past weeks.
On Friday, Hezbollah announced that it debuted the Falaq-1 system for the first time in this round of confrontations.
According to Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV, the weapon was developed by Iran's Aerospace Industries Organization.
On Thursday, the group unveiled footage collected by a Television Camera installed on an Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM). Unlike other ATGMs that the Resistance had heavily publicized in released footage, the latest video showcases an indirect attack mode of which the system is capable.
In addition, Hezbollah has been increasingly sharing detailed footage of its attacks against Israel, showing them hitting direct targets. Immediately after, the group would send statements noting that those attacks are in “support of the people and resistance in Gaza.”
This raised the question of whether Hezbollah was in fact escalating in the war and taking matters a step further.
Hezbollah’s escalation is a ‘deterrent’
According to security and defense analyst Riad Kahwaji, Hezbollah is indeed escalating its warfare.
“The escalation by Hezbollah suggests that the party perceives a genuine Israeli threat to launch a major campaign against Lebanon. The warnings and signals received indicate Israel's seriousness in undertaking such an operation. Hezbollah has escalated as a deterrent, showcasing new weapons and advanced high-tech capabilities to dissuade Israel and intensify the attacks,” explained Kahwaji to L’Orient Today on Sunday.
US officials are concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see an expanded fight in Lebanon as key to his political survival amid domestic criticism of his government’s failure to prevent Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, which killed an estimated 1,200 people and resulted in some 240 hostages being taken to Gaza, the Washington post reported. Talks of a major escalation between Hezbollah and Israel are increasing, indicating a looming war threat.
In December, Israel's War Cabinet member Benny Gantz issued a warning “to push the Lebanese Hezbollah group from the borders if the world does not take action.”
According to Kahwaji, Hezbollah’s escalation could prove itself to be effective in deterring Israel from launching a major war, “but this tactic is a double-edged sword and is indeed very risky.”
“This could also convince the Israelis that Hezbollah has become too strong and they have to carry out a major campaign to reduce its capabilities, so if the Israelis were not serious about the campaign, those actions would deter them. But if they are concerned about Hezbollah’s growing capabilities and want to carry out an operation to reduce those capabilities, then those attacks carried out by Hezbollah will convince them more and will convince their allies, and those that were still hesitating about supporting such an advancement,” Kahwaji said.
Hezbollah's videos target their 'populist base'
According to L’Orient Today’s count, Hezbollah has lost 174 fighters since Oct. 8.
Kahwaji said that although Hezbollah has inflicted losses on the Israeli army's side, the numbers “remain in the dozens, although Israel does not release all the numbers of casualties lost on its side.”
“Israel can inflict way more harm to Hezbollah than the other way around because it has more advanced military power and this is evident in the number of losses when we compare the two sides. Hezbollah uses the videos [of its military operations] for the sake of its own people, for populist reasons and not for the Israeli side. The Israeli side knows [to a certain extent] what Hezbollah is capable of,” Kahwaji said.
“Those videos show that [Hezbollah] are achieving victories while the Israelis are concealing their losses. Hezbollah is showing a popular base that is strong and can also inflict pain upon Israel,” according to Kahwaji.
But will we witness a full blown escalation?
“We have to wait and see,” Kahwaji concluded.