Israel is growing increasingly aggressive in Lebanon: It will be war if necessary

It has been a race against time. Lebanon has swayed between the possibilities of wide-scale war and a diplomatic settlement. In this third phase of the Gaza war — that of targeted attacks rather than intensive fighting, as announced two weeks ago — Israel has become increasingly aggressive and seems ready to cross every red line and it is intent on imposing its conditions through military means if diplomatic negotiations fail to bring about a breakthrough.

As we already know, the Netanyahu cabinet is demanding that Hezbollah move north of the Litani River and wants to destroy all the party’s sites south of the river to ensure the safety of its citizens residing in the north.

It is within this context that a proposal for a 48-hour truce on the southern border was reported by Israeli media. If this truce happens, it could serve as a basis for the next stage. But if it fails and Hezbollah breaches it, Israel plans to step up its military strikes in the south and destroy several villages.

In parallel with this proposal, Israel upped its diplomatic messages to Lebanon and indicated its readiness to expand the conflict. If Hezbollah does not respect the truce and carries out operations on Israeli sites, Israel would use this as a pretext to widen its confrontation, which could turn into a ground war.

Lebanon received another message that Israel is set on going to war and will not back down. Some leaks from corroborating sources suggest that the deadline Israel granted to the US-led negotiations for a solution will end at the end of January. Other sources said that it has been extended to late February.

However, a source close to Hezbollah said “Israel’s escalating threats are mere rhetoric, similar to the stage that preceded the maritime border demarcation agreement. Israel is incapable of engaging in a large-scale war and cannot open two fronts, which is why it is opting for assassination operations and targeting sites and the party’s members. In addition, it is targeting IRGC officers to compensate for its inability to carry out a military operation.”

If Hassan Nasrallah’s party does not seem worried, it is not only because it is confident in its ability to inflict heavy losses on the Israelis, but also because it has clearly sent out the message that the war, if declared, will not be limited to the Lebanese front and that many of the resistance axis’ factions will take part in the fight.

Provoking Iran

According to the above-mentioned Hezbollah source, Israeli military escalation is linked to the negotiation process and is part of the context of increased pressure. “Israel is flexing its muscles to instill fear and push its adversary into surrendering or agreeing to a deal. Hezbollah is well aware of this,” the source said.

“Any agreement will be linked to a ceasefire in Gaza and taking into account the Lebanese conditions, in particular, the Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories and the disputed points,” the source added.

A few days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made threatening statements about Iran, holding it directly responsible for tensions in the region and not just in the Gaza Strip, in an attempt to stir up international public opinion against the Islamic Republic.

In practice, the“unity of the fronts” slogan was rallied before by the Iranians, who tried to implement it symbolically at the start of Al-Aqsa Flood. But faced with Israel’s desire to broaden the war by involving the US, Teheran changed its strategy, moving from open and extended warfare to fronts of diversion only.

But Tel Aviv continues to strike at Iran on several fronts and provoke Hezbollah, whether by targeting Hamas’s deputy chief in Beirut’s southern suburb or by assassinating several party officials.

However, after a series of strikes on Iranian targets, the head of the al-Quds force said Iran would not be drawn into the war that Israel desires, which means that Teheran will not respond, to avoid war.

“The Israelis will continue along this path, either to achieve their objectives or to provoke Tehran and drag it into an all-out war, while involving the Americans,” said a Western diplomatic source.

Three phases

On the southern front, in line with Israel’s repeated warnings in recent days that an all-out war is imminent, the clashes can be divided into three phases.

In the first phase, the Israelis focused on targeting Hezbollah cells and members involved in operations, in addition to targeting surveillance points and front-line posts.

The second phase involved targeting both military and civilian sites in an area further away from the border strip.

The third phase involves stepping up strikes and creating belts of fire in several areas south of the Litani River, with strikes concentrated north of the river.

South of the river, the Israelis have established a ring of fire in the Wadi Slouqi and Wadi Hujair. They also stepped up bombardments on Kfar Kila, Aita al-Shaab, Houla and Ramieh, among other villages, and targeted homes in these localities.

As for north of the Litani River, the Israelis have struck key Hezbollah sites and posts on several occasions, like in the heights of Jabal Safi and Jabal Rihan and in neighboring areas.

In assessing these operations, one can conclude that the Israelis are seeking to achieve their objectives without starting a war, all the while keeping Hezbollah in a situation where it has no incentive to go to war.

They carry out targeted strikes on places and sites important to the party’s leadership, destroying its military infrastructure, and in parallel carry out operations aimed at eliminating its officials, as part of a strategy of exhaustion akin to a war of attrition.

“The Israelis are working to turn the region south of the Litani River into a new Syria so they can finally impose their conditions,” said the diplomatic source.

But if this strategy does not pay off, the cards could be reshuffled at any moment.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.