Israeli soldiers operating in the Gaza Strip. (Credit: AFP)
For over three months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “annihilate Hamas.” Last Thursday, Netanyahu pledged once again to continue fighting in the Palestinian enclave until “total victory.”
This statement reflects his desire to play the long game. “For Netanyahu, it is about his own political survival, which in recent years has been closely linked to his desire to avoid going to prison,” said Seth Binder, director of advocacy at Project on the Middle East Democracy, pointing to the three judicial cases he is implicated in. His trial in corruption cases resumed in Jerusalem in early December.
Netanyahu is faced with a dilemma, either outcome of which could prove fatal to his political survival. Under pressure from his far-right and ultra-nationalist coalition partners, who have called on him to take a hard line in the conduct of the war, Netanyahu fears that such an approach could lead centrist MPs Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot to resign from the war cabinet and call for early elections.
These two former chiefs of staff, whose alliance would easily lead to the formation of a coalition cabinet if an election were to be held today, are aligned with Washington’s position on Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and its scenarios for the day after the war.
Netanyahu cannot risk alienating his coalition allies because it could lead him to lose his majority in the Knesset, nor can he risk seeing his war cabinet shattered, which could deal a blow to the precious US military aid.
“The US holds all the cards to put pressure on Israel. If they use their influence in terms of security assistance, it is likely that this will lead not only to less restrictions on humanitarian aid entering Gaza, but also to a direct impact on the way Israel can conduct the war,” said Binder.
The hope for Trump’s victory
To avoid having to make a decision, Netanyahu has an interest in the war dragging on, aware that he will have to answer for his failings when the commission of inquiry into the Oct 7. Events begins to examine the failures once the war is over.
It is also a way of awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election scheduled for November, which could once again be marked by a duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The republican candidate’s return to power would greatly benefit Netanyahu.
A key ally of Netanyahu, Trump had favored him big time, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and unilaterally withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal — a decision Tel Aviv perceived as a guarantee to its security.
Aware of Biden’s growing discredit within his own political family and a section of the US public opinion, in the face of what they see as a blank check given to Israel since Oct. 7, the Israeli prime minister seems to be betting on his departure from the White House.
In the meantime, Netanyahu is blowing hot and cold over the Democratic administration’s proposal on a “reformed Palestinian Authority” in Gaza and the West Bank after the war, as well as the normalization of Israel-Saudi relations in exchange for guarantees for the creation of a Palestinian state.
During a phone call with Biden on Friday, he said that the public statements he had made the previous day — in which he seemed to reject the idea of creating a Palestinian state — were not intended to rule out this outcome, whatever form it might take, CNN quoted a person familiar with the conversation.
These comments were taken up by the US administration, but were followed a few hours later by a contradictory statement by Netanyahu, who reaffirmed his firm opposition to a “Palestinian sovereignty” in the blood-stained enclave over the weekend.
The Palestinian state
Opposing a two-state solution may enable him to win more support domestically, particularly from the right-wing electorate that he is trying to win over.
“Despite the disastrous Hamas attack on Oct. 7 happening on his watch, he is going to frame his campaign to stay in power with this argument: The Americans and the Arabs want to force a Palestinian state down Israel’s throat, and I am the only Israeli leader strong enough to resist them. So vote for me, even if I messed up on Oct. 7 and the Gaza war is not going all that great,” wrote The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman on Friday.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity, at its lowest in the polls, is desperately needed at a time when public pressure is mounting on the cabinet to free the Hamas-held hostages in Gaza.
As recently as Monday, dozens of Israeli hostages’ families stormed into a Knesset meeting to demand the return of their loved ones.
The same day, according to two Israeli officials quoted by Axios, Tel Aviv gave the Islamist movement a proposal for the release of all remaining hostages so as to appease domestic discontent.
Although the plan spans a two months period, Israel reportedly admitted that if the deal is approved, the war will resume in the enclave, albeit at a lower intensity — a sign that the deal is not intended to bring an end to the war.
“Some in Israel will argue that such a pause in the fighting could help rebuild Hamas,” said Binder.
Although it has not so far approved this proposal, it would be in the Palestinian group’s interest to obtain the longest possible pause in the fighting to enable it to rebuild its capabilities.
While US estimates suggest that the group still has sufficient resources to continue its attacks on Israel and its forces in Gaza for several months, Israeli forces have reportedly eliminated from 20 to 30 percent of its fighters in the Strip, as well as a significant number of tunnels.
“Ultimately, Israel’s war strategy of eliminating Hamas was never realistic and the only way to truly reduce the threat is to create a Palestinian state,” said Binder.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.