Frustrated by Netanyahu, the Biden administration diversifies its options

Behind the scenes, the Biden administration’s frustration by the Netanyahu government is hardly contained. As a sign of these tensions, there has been no direct communication between the US President and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since Dec. 23. President Joe Biden reportedly ended this exchange with the following words: “This conversation is over,” reported Axios news website.

Nearly a week ago, Netanyahu is said to have continued in the same vein, and rejected Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s proposal that Saudi Arabia establishes relations in exchange for an Israeli commitment for the creation of a Palestinian state, as requested by Riyadh, NBC reported.

This initiative is also aimed at finding a political solution to the conflict and putting an end to the suffering in Gaza. There are many disagreements, leading Washington to favor other Israeli interlocutors.

Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, the US administration has gradually increased the pressure behind the scenes on the Israeli coalition in power, which includes far-right and ultra-nationalist figures.

Irritated by the refusal of Netanyahu and his partners in the coalition to seriously discuss plans for the day after in Gaza, and to release tax revenues due to the Palestinian Authority (PA), the White House also fears that Israel will not honor its commitments to move on to a new phase in the war, which is supposed to be marked by lower-intensity military operations.

The stakes are all the higher for Biden, ahead of the US presidential election, scheduled for November. His re-election is more uncertain, as criticism of the images coming from Gaza mounts within his democratic camp and public opinion.

“Biden does not want this issue to influence the electorate and the vote in the United States,” said Thomas Vescovi, an independent researcher in history and expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “He knows just how demagogic Trump [a presidential candidate] can be in his unwavering support for Israel.”

Survival

Faced with the Israeli prime minister’s intransigence, Washington is stepping up its contacts with opposition figures, such as Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid — with whom Blinken met in Tel Aviv in early January on the fringes of his regional tour — and other government figures, such as the Minister for Strategic affairs Ron Dermer.

“This rapprochement is part of the US logic of preparing for the post-Netanyahu era, of forming alliances that would already be solid in case one of them potentially takes office tomorrow,” said Vescovi. “A cacophony, as is the case currently, cannot please the Americans and the other states in the region that want to be involved in the post-war situation in Gaza.”

Quoted by NBC, a US administration official recently said that Netanyahu “won’t be there forever.”

Because the US considers that Netanyahu’s survival depends on the outcome of the war. Dragging out the hostilities and postponing any discussion on the future of post-Hamas Gaza allows Netanyahu to play for time.

“It’s simple,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “As long as there is a war, there is no state commission of inquiry [into the Oct. 7 events]; there are no widespread protests; there is no demand that Netanyahu resign immediately. The man has an inherent conflict of interest.”

It is also a way of putting off the three court cases in which the prime minister is implicated, although his corruption trial resumed in Jerusalem in early December.

Disagreements

His rivals are aware of this point of contention, playing on Washington’s line to position themselves. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant — sacked from the cabinet at the end of March following his request to suspend the highly controversial judicial reform, before being reinstated — said on Monday regarding the day after in the Palestinian enclave, “I will say this in the clearest way possible: A strong Palestinian Authority is in the best security interests of Israel.”

It is a hand extended to the Americans who are pushing for a future Palestinian state, governed by a “revitalized” PA in control of Gaza and the West Bank. It is a scenario that Netanyahu continues to oppose officially, as otherwise he risks alienating his partners in the coalition, who are firmly opposed to the PA return to Gaza, let alone the creation of a Palestinian state.

“The defense minister wants a more pragmatic approach and Netanyahu refuses, which is causing disagreements within the cabinet,” said David Makovsky, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Boosted by their popularity, MPs Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot (from the former’s centrist party and appointed as an observer in the war cabinet), who have been urged by their voters to resign from the war cabinet, could nevertheless respond to these calls.

According to two opinion polls conducted last week by the Israeli media Maariv and Channel 12, Gantz would easily form a government coalition if elections were held today, and beat the current prime minister.

According to the two polls, the political alliance he formed in the last general elections would win the largest number of seats in the Knesset (39 according to Maariv, 35 according to Channel 12).

“Netanyahu’s biggest fear is that these two former chiefs of staff will leave the cabinet and that he will be left with the hard right who will hold the balance of power, in particular Ben-Gvir and Smotrich,” said Makovsky. “He knows that, since Oct.7, he has aroused the anger of the right and believes that the center will try to provoke an election.”

But it would not be in Gantz’s interest to leave immediately. The Americans seem to be pushing to keep him and Eisenkot in the war cabinet, whose efforts have enabled the gradual reduction of the Israeli military presence in Gaza in recent weeks.

According to the senior Israeli political source quoted by Al-Monitor, the Biden administration is putting pressure on them to resist calls from their constituents to resign.

“If Gantz leaves the cabinet too soon, it will give the impression that he is too political,” said Makovsky. Netanyahu will tell him: ‘Sinwar, Deif, the hostages are still in Gaza... and you are running away in the middle of a war.’”

It is a card that could benefit the prime minister politically, as he is adept at turning things around.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.