A missile is launched from a warship during the US-led coalition operation against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi militia that has been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, from an undisclosed location, in this handout picture released on Jan. 12, 2024. (Credit: US Central Command via X/Handout via Reuters)
Despite the growing risk of regional escalation in the context of the war in Gaza, Washington and London have followed through on their threats to strike Yemen's Houthi rebels, the group that has disrupted international maritime trade in the Red Sea.
The strikes were launched on Thursday night, with strikes against more than 60 Houthi targets in Yemen in 16 different localities. Strikes were reported in the rebel-held capital Sanaa, their stronghold of Saada, the port of Hodeida and Dhamar. After several warnings, President Joe Biden ordered the strikes in response to "unprecedented" attacks on ships in the Red Sea, which have severely disrupted global maritime trade.
What is the background to these strikes?
- These US-British strikes in Yemen come as the war in Gaza, provoked by Hamas's deadly attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, has entered its fourth month, having already claimed more than 23,000 lives in the Palestinian enclave.
- As part of the "axis of resistance," the Yemeni Houthis have been launching recurrent attacks in support of Hamas since Oct. 19, with long-range missiles aimed at southern Israel – capable of intercepting them unhindered – but above all, from November onwards, with operations targeting commercial vessels sailing in the Red Sea.
- Claiming to target only vessels with any link to Israel, the rebel group seized the Galaxy Leader, owned by an Israeli billionaire, on Nov. 19. At least 27 attacks have been recorded to date.
- Major shipping companies quickly turned their backs on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which handles 12 percent of the world's traffic and is particularly important for energy supplies. As a result, transport times have lengthened, insurance premiums have risen, and the price of goods transported has risen.
- Faced with this risk to world trade, the United States took the initiative of forming an international coalition in the Red Sea. A dozen countries are now taking part in Operation Prosperity Guardian, of which Bahrain, home to the base of the US Fifth Fleet, is the only representative from the region.
- On Wednesday evening, the UN Security Council passed a resolution with 11 votes in favor and 4 abstentions (including China and Russia, who could have used their veto power), condemning the Houthi attacks "in the strongest terms," and "noting the right of member states" to defend their vessels from such attacks under international law.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spent more than a week in the region, visiting the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and making a last-minute detour to Bahrain. While Washington has deployed unprecedented deterrence efforts since the start of the war, the question of a widening of the conflict remains at the heart of discussions during his meetings with regional leaders.
- Members of the coalition active in Yemen in support of pro-government forces, Abu Dhabi, but especially Riyadh, which has led it since 2015, have often been the target of Houthi attacks in recent years, until the conclusion of a truce in April 2022 that has held informally since its expiry.
- Focused on diversifying their economies, the two petro-monarchies have normalized relations with Iran, the sponsor of the Houthis, in the hope of obtaining security guarantees against these attacks. Riyadh, which is desperately seeking a way out of the conflict in Yemen, has also launched direct talks with the rebels, without so far reaching a peace agreement.
The stakes:
- Warnings to the Houthis, the latest in the form of an ultimatum, had already been issued. With the UN resolution passed by the Security Council on Wednesday, the United States legitimized its coalition's action in the Red Sea on the international stage. Following the strikes on Thursday and Friday, Russia, which has grown closer to Iran since the war in Ukraine, nevertheless requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, at least officially signaling its disagreement with the US actions.
- If, at the end of December, White House national security spokeswoman Adrienne Watson had stated that she "knew that Iran was deeply involved in planning operations against commercial vessels in the Red Sea", this time Washington made no reference to Teheran, wishing to avoid direct involvement by Iran, which also intends to avoid a regional conflagration of the Gaza conflict, and even more, a direct confrontation with the Americans. Some analysts note, however, that without action against Teheran, the provocations and tensions will continue.
- The United States' gamble that these strikes will have a dissuasive effect and will not lead to regionalization of the conflict is nevertheless risky, as the war in Gaza is testing the principle of "unity of fronts" advocated by the "axis of resistance", which today finds itself attacked on all sides by different enemies. Gregory D. Johnsen, Associate Director of the Institute for Future Conflict, points out on X that there is no good option for Washington, listing in particular the risk of being drawn into a local or even regional war in the event of action, or of seeing attacks perpetuated in the event of inaction.
- While Washington may be able to prevent the conflict from flaring up, the risk of escalation on the Yemeni front is high, given the rebel group's autonomy from its Iranian sponsor. Moreover, since their repeated attacks, the Houthis have gained in popularity and recruitment in the face of a population fed up with hatred of the United States and Israel. Coalition forces, as well as Israel, remain on high alert for Houthi reprisals.
- Saudi Arabia is the other American partner with reason to worry. Antony Blinken's meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman a few days ago in Al-Ula and Bahrain's support for the strikes nevertheless seem to indicate that Riyadh was informed and may even have approved these operations in advance. The issue of normalization with Israel also came to the fore during the US Secretary of State's regional tour, despite the fact that such an agreement would have included security guarantees from Washington to Riyadh before Oct. 7. After the strikes in Yemen, a statement from the US Air Force reiterated that Washington remains "committed to its essential partners throughout the Middle East in defense against Iranian-backed militia groups, including the Houthi militia."
This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.