Saleh al-Arouri’s assassination puts Washington in delicate position

This was one of the key questions immediately raised after the assassination: Did Washington know?

For several weeks now, the Biden administration has been stepping up the pressure on its Israeli ally, while multiplying dissuasive measures in the region to avoid a conflagration.

This strategy seems to have borne fruit in Lebanon with Hezbollah and, to a lesser extent, in other regional theaters where Tehran's proxies are carrying out attacks against Israeli and American positions, such as Yemen, Iraq and Syria.

But if the targeted assassination of Saleh al-Arouri demonstrates one thing, it's that American deterrence clearly did not have the desired effect on Israel's side.

Following Tuesday night's strike, two US officials quoted by Axios said that Israel was behind the attack — which Israel did not claim responsibility for — but stressed that the Biden administration had not been warned in advance.

These revelations were confirmed to the media by a senior Israeli official, who said that Israel had informed Washington “as the operation was taking place.”

“The Israelis knew that if the United States were informed of the plan, they would oppose it,” says Randa Slim, a researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

American embarrassment

In a sign of America’s unawareness of Israel’s plan, the US Navy announced on Monday that the aircraft carrier USS Ford's carrier battle group would be leaving the region in the next few days to return to its home port in Virginia, having been deployed at the start of the war in the eastern Mediterranean to protect Israel and prevent a conflagration on the Lebanese front.

In the eyes of the US, the most imminent threat was now in the Red Sea, in the face of the increasing number of attacks launched by the Houthis in Yemen. On Saturday, the US Central Command for the region (Centcom) announced that navy helicopters had sunk three boats piloted by the Tehran-backed rebels, after Washington had formed an international coalition a few weeks ago to ensure safe passage for commercial and oil vessels using the Red Sea.

Could the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri force the US to reassess its military deployment in the Mediterranean? Or will Washington further increase the pressure on its Israeli ally? One thing is certain: Tuesday night's attack puts the US in a delicate position.

“Saleh al-Arouri was on the US wanted list, so the US is not per se opposed to his elimination,” continued Randa Slim. Hamas's number two was classified by America in 2015 as a “specially designated global terrorist.” It offered a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture. But it's the timing of the Israeli operation and the regional context in which it's taking place that worries Washington.

For almost three months, America has been working diplomatically to prevent Lebanon plunging entirely into war, although all the signs show that, despite their rhetoric, Beirut and Tehran do not want a regional war.

“The US has repeatedly tried to make the Israelis understand that they don't want a front in Lebanon," observed Michael Young, editor of Diwan, the blog of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. “A Lebanese war would force the United States to mobilize. So the Israelis will be careful not to embroil Washington in a regional war.”

Increased pressure?

The attack on Saleh al-Arouri coincides with the third phase of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, which is expected to be of lower intensity and focused in particular on the elimination of senior Hamas or "Axis of Resistance" leaders.

As a sign of this new strategy of targeted assassinations, Razi Moussavi, one of the most experienced advisors to the al-Quds Force (in charge of the Revolutionary Guards Corps' external operations) was killed on Dec. 25 in Syria, in an air strike attributed by Tehran to Israel.

Israel may have acted in this way to re-establish its intelligence deterrent after the slip of Oct. 7, while betting on the fact that the US would continue to play the regional de-escalation card.

Carried out on Lebanese soil, Israel's recent operation is a game-changer for its American ally. The assassination of Hamas’s most senior commander killed since Operation al-Aqsa Flood happened on the eve of a speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

The speech was intended to mark the four year commemoration Kassem Soleimani’s assassination by the US in Iraq, who was a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Will the Israeli attack alter the Biden administration's calculations? Since Oct. 7, the US has granted Israel a wide margin of maneuver in its military operations in Gaza, in line with Israel's stated objective of destroying Hamas.

Discreet pressure is certainly being exerted to soften international criticism of the number of civilian casualties and the “inflammatory” statements made by Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition partners about the displacement of the Gazan population.

Faced with the threat that the elimination of Saleh al-Arouri could give rise to a series of targeted assassinations in Lebanon, which could lead to uncontrollable reprisals, the US could further harden its tone: “There are several possible means of pressure: Limiting or delaying the arms supplied to Israel, or even taking less pro-Israeli positions in international institutions by, for example, allowing resolutions to pass at the UN Security Council through abstention,” suggested Michael Young.

In the short term, the US is mainly concerned with calming things down. “Washington knows that Hezbollah will respond. The question is how, and America prefers a response that does not lead to regional escalation,” said Randa Slim. The United States will make all parties understand this.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour.