Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri conducting a telephone interview in his Beirut office. Photo published by the Islamist movement on Jan. 3, 2024, the day after al-Arouri was killed in an Israeli strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut. (Credit: AFP)
In the heart of Beirut's heavily fortified southern suburbs, Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas's number two, was killed by an Israeli surgical strike on Tuesday.
Israel has followed through on its threats to target Hamas officials not only in Gaza but also abroad, particularly after the Oct.7 attack.
Tel Aviv issued threats against al-Arouri in August 2023, two months before the war began.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly warned al-Arouri, who was “hiding with his comrades in Beirut.”
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah responded by asserting that any operation against a member of the pro-Iranian axis on Lebanese soil would receive a “fierce” response.
Now that the die was cast, Hezbollah’s response will not be long in coming and could shape the outline of the next stage of the war.
Shortcomings
Several questions arise as to how the assassination operation was carried out. According to sources close to Hezbollah, an internal investigation is already underway to find answers.
[Before the strike], a meeting was held in the same place at the same time, gathering several Hamas leaders. In such wartime circumstances, this seems to be a tactical error.
Al-Arouri was killed alongside six leaders of his movement and some of al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, a Lebanese party affiliated, like Hamas, to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The attack showed how closely the two movements were coordinating. Al-Jamaa al-Islamiya announced the death of two of its officials alongside al-Arouri. The first was a military official in the Bekaa area and the other a cybersecurity expert and leader.
Two senior military officers from the al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, were also killed, including the head of operations in southern Lebanon.
Notably, this was not the first time that a Hamas official was killed alongside figures linked to al-Jamaa a-Islamiya.
Last november, Israel targeted Khalil Kharraz, the deputy military commander of the al-Qassam Brigades in Lebanon. At the time, Kharraz was in the South, accompanied by two sheikhs from the city of Tripoli and two Turkish nationals.
Internal investigations were subsequently initiated, focusing on Israel’s surveillance capabilities, electronic eavesdropping capabilities and attempting to identify potential security gaps.
Notably, Hamas had relocated its primary headquarters from the recently constructed al-Jamaa al-Islamiya building in Saida to the southern suburbs of Beirut, which is considered Hezbollah’s stronghold.
Following the assassination of al-Arouri, the investigation centered on two key aspects.
Firstly, there was a scrutiny of the potential presence of infiltrators within the “Axis of Resistance,” who might have supplied the Israelis with information, facilitating their attacks.
Secondly, the focus turned to Israel’s technological superiority, evident through various factors. This included the capability of drones to swiftly detect any Hezbollah cell or element moving along the border within 30 seconds, resulting in numerous casualties within the party’s ranks (more than 140 since Oct. 8).
Another indication to this sophistication is the hacking of surveillance cameras and communication devices, leading to the establishment of a comprehensive information system in Israeli hands.
This capability was notably illustrated by the assassination of Mohammad Raad, the son of the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, in Beit Yahoun, in the South, in November.
These infiltrations have compelled Hezbollah to disconnect its devices from the internet and even power down its surveillance cameras, urging the residents of the south to follow suit. Furthermore, directives have been issued, advising against the use of mobile phones in sensitive areas due to the potential risk of hacking.
‘An operation inside Israel?’
The elimination of al-Arouri signals a shift, at least partially, from direct military operations to security and intelligence operations focused on assassinations. This shift mirrors the situation in Syria, where Israeli operations and bombings have been prevalent for years.
Therefore, akin to Syria, in addition to assassinations, the Israelis could at a later stage carry out operations targeting sites, posts or arms shipments belonging to Hezbollah and its allies.
However, the most crucial aspect of this affair lies in the Israeli breach of all rules of engagement by targeting, for the first time since the 2006 war, the southern suburbs of Beirut.
This poses a significant challenge for Hezbollah, particularly given Israel’s tendency to carry out such operations in a series, with intermittent actions spaced over time.
This may result in an escalation of ongoing confrontations between Israel and the Hamas-Hezbollah alliance or signify a transitional phase from direct military clashes in the Gaza Strip to targeted liquidation operations.
The situation is further complicated by international pressure on Israel to halt the conflict and initiate a political negotiation process.
“Israel, which considers al-Arouri as one of the masterminds behind the Oct. 7 attack, and armed activities in the West Bank, believes it scored a victory [by assassinating him], something that it has been struggling to achieve in the coastal enclave,” a source close to Hezbollah told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“This kind of operation could prompt the Israelis to deescalate the intensity of the conflict and transition to negotiations regarding the future of Gaza,” the source added. “This becomes especially relevant amid endeavors to establish a government of national unity in the Palestinian enclave.”
As for the response promised by Hezbollah, the source said it is “inevitable.”
“The response will come in different forms,” he said. “Firstly, by carrying out a major operation inside enemy territory to restore the balance of deterrence and prevent the Israelis from carrying out similar attacks in the future.”
“Secondly, by broadening the scope of the confrontation in accordance with the principle of unity of fronts, but without leading to an extended or all-out war,” he added.
“It will be a long battle,” the source said. “It is a war of attrition that requires a long breath.”
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.