A Palestinian woman reacts as others rush to look for victims in the rubble of a building following an Israeli strike in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on Oct. 17, 2023. (Credit: Mohamad Abed/AFP)
BEIRUT — Calls for a truce in Gaza to temporarily halt fighting between Israel and Hamas have been on the rise; however, reports are also mounting over divisions within both the Hamas and Israeli leaderships over the reaching of a deal on a possible truce.
Ali Barakeh, a member of Hamas’s leadership in Lebanon, told L’Orient Today that although he is not involved in the negotiations over a possible truce he can assure that “talks of a split among Hamas over the calling for a truce or permanent cease-fire is Israeli propaganda."
"There is no split, Hamas’s stance is clear, we are calling for a complete halt on Israeli aggression against Gaza, and then we will negotiate a deal on the hostages; this is Hamas’s unified stance inside Palestine and in the diaspora,” he said.
'Hamas divided because it has different regional backers'
However, Imad Salamey, professor of international relations at the Lebanese American University told L’Orient Today that “the different Palestinian leaderships and factions have always been divided over what is the best sort of action that is best suitable for resisting Israeli occupation."
"Historically, there have always been opposing views and a division between Palestinians within Palestine and in the diaspora on how to deal with Israel,” he said.
“The issue with Hamas today is that it has divisions not only in Gaza, and the [occupied] West Bank but also because it has different regional backers which are also divided,” Salamey noted.
"Hamas, on one hand, owes financial support to Qatar and needs to accommodate Qatari views and policies. Hamas also owes its military support and coordination to Hezbollah and Iran [which fund and train Hamas], and therefore its leaders need to maintain a pleasant relationship with them to be able to fight Israel. Ideologically and politically, Hamas is aligned with Turkey, and both have a strong linkage to the Muslim Brotherhood, [a global organization that envisions a system of Islamic rule],” Salamey explained.
Hamas is therefore “not a coherent Palestinian force" and needs to accommodate different views, and its leadership will have difficulty agreeing to one decision when it comes to calling for a truce during the holiday season.
“Qataris are not keen on keeping this fight because it's hurting the global economy and hurting the liability of Qatar to sell gas to Europe,” Salamey explained.
The World Bank had warned, in a report, on Oct. 30 that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could trigger a global economic “shock,” including oil prices soaring up to $150 a barrel and millions going hungry due to higher food prices.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank stresses that while the global economy is in a much better position than it was during the 1970s to “cope” with a major oil-price shock, “an escalation of the latest conflict in the Middle East — which comes on top of disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine — could push global commodity markets into unchartered waters.”
“Turkey is caught up in the middle and not so much interested in maintaining this fight" especially that continuing fighting gives the Iranians leverage to negotiate an agreement with the West, Salamey said.
According to the Geopolitical Monitor, a foreign affairs publication based in Toronto, Canada, by attempting to present itself as a crucial regional power with pivotal influence through its control of proxy groups in the Middle East, Iran can utilize negotiations and international diplomacy to potentially negotiate leniency or reduced scrutiny regarding its own nuclear program.
“So it is natural to see division among the movement’s leadership of which way to go,” Salamey explained.
The leader of Hamas, however, visited Egypt for the first time in more than a month on Wednesday — a rare personal intervention in diplomacy amid what a source described to Reuters as "intensive talks on a new cease-fire to let aid reach Gaza and free more hostages."
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who normally resides in Qatar, typically wades publicly into diplomacy only when progress seems likely. He last traveled to Egypt in early November before the announcement of the only cease-fire in the Gaza war so far, a weeklong pause that saw the release of about 110 of 240 hostages taken by Hamas in its Oct. 7 rampage into Israel.
'Israel is not politically coherent'
“With respect to Israel, we can also say that it’s not politically coherent and has many groups to consider in its Gaza campaign, the most important being the domestic front,” Salamey said.
“On one side, we have the families of the [Israeli] hostages that are afraid that the Israeli military campaign in Gaza will kill their own people, and we have the opposition that wants to destroy the entire Palestinian population within the strip and pave the way for right-wing extremism in Israel,” Salamey explained.
On Oct. 16, the Israeli army admitted that three Israeli men were “mistakenly killed in Gaza” after an Israeli soldier mistook them for Hamas fighters. The victims were among the 240 hostages taken captive by Hamas on Oct. 7.
“We also have the settler movement and the religious right group that are interested in continuing in this war to build and expand their settlements and pave the way in Gaza for more settlers to come to Israel and settle there,” Salamey said.
On Israel's side, President Isaac Herzog had said on Tuesday, that Israel is ready to enter into another truce mediated by a foreign party in Gaza in order to secure the release of prisoners held by Hamas and “enable more aid to reach the besieged Palestinian territory.”
He noted, however, that the responsibility to ensure that this truce comes into effect “lies entirely on the shoulders of [Hamas military leader Yahya] Sinwar and the Hamas leadership [other members of the movement]."
This comes as, according to Reuters, Bassam Naim, a Hamas official, said there will be no negotiations about the Israeli prisoners in Gaza before Israel stops the aggression on the strip, “but we are open to any initiative that alleviates the burden on our people."
The United States' influence
Similarly, the division between US officials regarding a call for truce is also influencing the Israeli division, as Washington is Israel’s key ally and provides it with more than $3.8 billion in military aid each year. The Democratic Party in the US is worried about the repercussions of this war on Biden’s re-election, and are pressuring the Israeli leadership.
Earlier in December, Muslim American leaders in several states pledged to rally their communities against President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election due to his steadfast backing of Israel’s war in Gaza.
The Democratic president has been reluctant to criticize Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, citing the country’s “right to defend itself” in the wake of an Oct. 7 attack that left around 1,140 people dead, according to Israeli authorities.
Many within Biden’s own party have criticized him for his “unwavering support” for Israel. As of last Wednesday, an estimated 62 members of the US Congress have called for a cease-fire, according to the Working Families Party, a left-leaning political group.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last month also showed 68 percent of Americans supported calls for a cease-fire. That number was even higher among Democrats alone.
The lack of cohesion within the Israeli and Hamas leaderships on how to move forward undermines the capability of both parties to come up with an imminent or lasting resolution for this conflict, according to Salamey.