Gaza: Will Biden finally stop Netanyahu?

“Bibi, I love you, but I don’t agree with a damn thing you have to say.” Joe Biden wrote this message on an old photo of him with Benjamin Netanyahu. Their acquaintance dates back 50 years.

At a fund-raising lunch on Tuesday, the US President recounted the anecdote and concluded, “that remains to be the case.”

This marked the first time that Biden criticized his ally since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, following the deadly Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7. So far concealed, the disagreements that have come into the open reveal a growing gap between the two allies.

How can Israel continue the war in the face of US insistence that the offensive ends within a few weeks? What scenario will be put in place for the post-war period, with Washington brushing aside any Israeli occupation and calling to revitalize the Palestinian Authority (PA) to run Gaza, while the Israeli government categorically rejects a two-state solution?

Global leadership

Faced with growing international concern and criticism of the war Israel is carrying out, the Democrat president finally stepped up to the plate. Israel is “starting to lose that support by the indiscriminate bombing that takes place,” Biden warned.

More than 18,600 people have been killed since Oct. 7 by Israeli bombardment, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza. According to various UN agencies, 85 percent of the Gazan population have been displaced, without a “safe zone” where they can avoid ongoing Israeli bombardment. While some fear a forced displacement from Gaza to Egypt, others stress the unattainable goal of the war, which would make the conflict permanent.

The US global leadership role could suffer due to its unwavering support for Israel. Washington was the only country to veto a binding resolution calling for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” at the United Nations Security Council on Friday.

The resolution, which the United Arab Emirates put forward, had nevertheless won the support of nearly a 100 countries, that voted at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday in favor of a similar, albeit symbolic, resolution by an overwhelming majority.

Washington, which seems willing to demonstrate its constructive role in the war, is increasing pressure on the Israeli government. Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to Biden, is expected in Israel on Thursday and Friday, where he will meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog and war cabinet members.

The US representative is expected to urge Israel to open the Karam Abu Salem (Kerem Shalom) crossing between Israel and the Gaza Strip, to allow more than 300 trucks of humanitarian aid a day into Gaza, through the Karam Abu Salem and the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Since Oct. 21, aid has been trickling in, way less than what is needed.

Sullivan is also expected to discuss the military campaign’s agenda with the Israeli officials. The Financial Times quoted US officials saying that the US “expects a switch in tactics, likely in January,” to a less intensive phase of the war in southern Gaza, consisting of targeted raids rather than a large-scale ground operation.

“Nothing will stop us. We are going until the end, until victory, nothing less than that,” said Netanyahu, in preamble to the visit.

At the heart of Biden’s remarks on Tuesday, when he criticized the Israeli cabinet’s categorical rejection of a two-state solution, the post-war period is likely to be raised during this visit.

“Neither the Americans nor the Israelis have a coherent plan for the post-conflict governance arrangement in Gaza,” said Hussein Ibish, a scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Once either or both come to some kind of conclusion, then they might disagree to the point that the US begins to pressure Israel, or even vice versa.”

“They [the Americans] have made it clear they will not accept an Israeli occupation of Gaza, reduction of territory or a transfer of population,” said Kim Ghattas, author of Black Wave and a researcher at Columbia University’s Institute of Global Politics. “But I don’t see the US using any leverage so far other than tough language in private. And Netanyahu doesn’t seem ready to concede anything.”

Netanyahu has already replied to the US President, stating in a video posted on social media on Tuesday that “Gaza won’t become Hamastan or Fatahstan.”

However, his Minister for Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, who is also in charge of the normalization dossier with Saudi Arabia, and Israel’s national security advisor Tzachi Hanegbi, are leading a team discussing with the Americans the modalities for the PA takeover of Gaza, reported Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Conditions on aid?

In reality, the US has important levers of pressure, which are essential to the continuation of the war, and which it could use with Israel: Military deployment in the Middle East to serve as a deterrent against a regional conflagration and Iran’s involvement in the conflict, the yearly $3.8 billion in military aid granted to Israel, in addition to the $10 billion in emergency military aid, which the president requested, and the rapid delivery of munitions to replenish stocks and fuel an intensive military campaign.

“We need three things from the US: Munitions, munitions and munitions,” Netanyahu reportedly told a group of local government officials, wrote Israel’s Hayom newspaper, as reported by the Financial Times.

“Biden alluded to the fact that conditioning aid, as he described it, ‘worthwhile thought,’ but there’s no indication that the White House is willing to do so as directly,” said Ghattas.

The president reiterated on Tuesday that he was a “Zionist” and that Washington would continue to provide aid to the Israelis “until they get rid of Hamas.”

The US president’s recent statements do not break with the line he has espoused since the start of the war. The two allies share common interests: Destroying Hamas, regional issues linked to the Iranian threat, the desire to move forward with the Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization and securing shipping lanes in the Red Sea which the Houthis’ activities have endangered.

In this respect, Biden has never wavered from the unwavering support he has shown for his Israeli ally since the start of the war, despite the reservations and warnings that were relayed discreetly.

Biden refuses in particular to order a ceasefire and is paying close attention to the issue of the hostages captured by Hamas. On Wednesday, he met with the families of the US citizens that continue to be held in the Gaza Strip.

On the military front, the State Department invoked an emergency provision, approving the sale of a first tranche of nearly 14,000 Merkava tank shells, skipping congressional review.

Domestic considerations

At a time when Biden has been under heavy criticism within his party for his stance on the war, it is safe to say that his recriminations against Netanyahu are also aimed at a national audience, as the presidential election is scheduled in less than a year, in November 2024.

While half of Americans approve of Israel’s military operation, according to a Gallup poll conducted Nov.1-Nov. 21, 63 percent of the Democratic Party supporters are against it. This is cause for concern.

The approval rating of President Biden, who claimed that human rights will be the center of his foreign policy during his previous electoral campaign, is only 60 percent among the democrats for the sequence of the Israel-Hamas war. His level of popularity among the democrats for his overall job performance stands at 83 percent, according to the poll.

The “Abandon Biden” campaign, supported by Muslim representatives, is therefore resonating with Arab or Muslim communities that represent a traditionally democratic and relatively strategic electorate. This could affect some pivotal states, including Michigan, which could rapidly overturn the elections’ results.

“Biden’s statement on Tuesday saying that Netanyahu had to change was a sign that the campaign to push him out has begun,” said Ghattas. “The White House hopes that Biden’s very public support for Israel after Oct. 7, which was welcomed by the Israeli public, and contrasted with their own government’s lack of concern and Netanyahu’s disregard for the hostages’ families, will give Biden the ability to speak directly to the Israeli people when the time comes to make choices in support of different leadership, a two-state solution and peace.”

Netanyahu’s video, broadcast in response to the US president’s discourse, has thus shifted to an election campaign, according to observers, although no date has been set for general elections.

Speaking in Hebrew, Netanyahu gave the impression that he was speaking to his own people, who were highly critical of the flaws that led to the Hamas attack, rather than to his US ally, echoing popular trends including the opposition to a two-state solution and the appreciation for US support.

“I think Biden would like to see the end of Netanyahu and deal with a different Israeli government. But it is not something he can arrange,” warned Ibish.

This article was originally published by L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.