Why is Nasrallah deciding to finally break his silence?

On Friday, Nov. 3, at 3:00 P.M, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah will finally break the silence he has maintained since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, in which his party is involved.

Nasrallah’s speech is eagerly awaited, as many observers have warned that the Iran-aligned leader will only speak to announce a turning point in the conflict.

After four weeks of embarrassing silence, expectations are high. Nasrallah can’t afford to disappoint his audience on Friday, which will likely exceed his usual Lebanese followers by far. It will be a meticulous task, at a time when neither Hezbollah nor Iran seem to want a major escalation.

The right moment

Since the start of the al-Aqsa Flood Operation, Nasrallah has opted for an unusual communications strategy, to say the least. Instead of launching into his traditional inflammatory speeches, he chose a puzzling silence, which only began to break last week.

“This has to do with psychological warfare,” reiterated those close to the party. “It’s a sign of powerlessness,” said his critics.

Nasrallah made his first contact with the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Gebran Bassil through a “secure” phone conversation on Monday Oct. 23. Two days later, the Hezbollah leader released a handwritten missive in which he called on the media to describe the fighters killed since the start of the conflict as “martyrs on the road to Jerusalem.”

Nasrallah then appeared in a photo alongside Hamas second in command Saleh Arouri, who now lives in Lebanon, and Islamic Jihad leader Ziad Nakhale during a meeting in Beirut, which Hezbollah announced that same day.

On Sunday, Hezbollah posted a 10-second social media video showing Nasrallah's blurred silhouette walking past the party’s logo.

The sporadic “appearances” will culminate on Friday Nov. 3 when Nasrallah takes the stage nearly a month after the start of the war. Officially, his speech will be a tribute to the party’s fighters that died in recent clashes.

“He will speak in the run-up to Martyr’s Day,” celebrated Nov. 11 every year, said Kassem Kassir, an analyst reputed to be close to Hezbollah. “It also comes on the heels of the 106th anniversary of the Balfour Declaration [Nov. 2],” Kassir added. The Balfour Declaration is a letter signed in 1917 by UK Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour that pledged to work for the creation of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine. This document is considered one of the founding texts of Israel.

According to another interpretation, Nasrallah, who has long praised the “unity of the resistance fronts,” was merely waiting for the right conditions to make a speech.

“He could not speak when Israel seemed to be in a position of strength, particularly because of the unlimited Western support Tel Aviv received after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack,” said Mohannad Hage Ali, an expert on Hezbollah at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut.

Since then, the situation has changed. “Today, on the one hand, Israel has been subjected to its limitations on the ground in Gaza, which forced it to postpone the announced ground invasion of the territory. On the other, Western capitals are a little more critical of Israel in view of the many casualties among Palestinian civilians,” said Hage Ali.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah spokesman Mohammad Afif said “it is clear that the Israelis are still unable to launch the ground invasion of Gaza that they have been threatening with for over two weeks.” Afif believes that “the resistance in Gaza is in a good position at the moment. So this is a good time for Hassan Nasrallah to speak out.”

‘Boosting the resistance fighters’ morale’

“The content of the speech will depend on the situation in Gaza,” said Kassir.

While Nasrallah’s speech could signal an escalation, it does not seem likely that Hezbollah would plan a declaration of all-out war five days in advance, especially not at a popular rally.

Hezbollah might use the speech as an opportunity to present the battle’s new rules, bearing in mind that the party has stepped up its military operations since the weekend. A new level was reached Sunday when the party shot down its first Israeli drone and targeted Safad, a town in northern Israel.

“An increase in this type of operation over the course of the week is probable,” said Hage Ali, who believes Friday’s speech will be an opportunity for Nasrallah to officially announce a “second stage” of the war.

“The latest developments show that the Israeli enemy does not want to launch an attack in southern Lebanon because it is unable to open a second front,” said Afif.

But Hezbollah does not seem to be in a hurry to cross the rubicon either. “Nasrallah will probably reiterate what are the red lines that the party’s senior leaders have already established,” estimated Hage Ali.

Hezbollah’s leaders have stated on several occasions that the party could provoke an escalation on Israel’s northern front if Tel Aviv deals Hamas a heavy blow, via a ground invasion for example, or provokes a forced displacement of Gaza’s population.

Nasrallah’s confirmation of these red lines, however, would have a different impact. Either the party is convinced that Israel has no choice but to scale down its objectives, or it feels strong enough to carry through with its threats if Israel does not respect them.

“Nasrallah is probably not going to announce war. The speech is mainly aimed at boosting the resistance fighters’ morale,” said Faisal Abdel Sater, an observer close to Hezbollah.

Hage Ali believes Friday’s speech may not be a major turning point in the conflict. “In reality, it will be more an exercise in form than substance, with a real effort to put on a show,” he said he said.

While even in Lebanon, Nasrallah’s speeches have been broadcast less and less since 2019, Friday’s speech will likely be followed not only by the majority of Lebanese people, but also throughout the Arab world, and by Western and Israeli leaders.

“At a time when his popular base, as well as Lebanese and regional public opinion, is increasingly angry with Israel, Nasrallah will on Friday be the first Arab leader to threaten the Jewish state since Oct. 7,” said Hage Ali.

Nasrallah seems to want to recover some of the regional prestige he gained during the July 2006 war, but without starting another war.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient Le-Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.